Ten wheat production sites of Pakistan were categorized into four climatic zones i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid to explore the vulnerability of wheat production in these zones to climate change using CSM-Cropsim-CERES-Wheat model. The analysis was based on multi-year crop model simulation runs using daily weather series under scenarios of increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO 2 ) along with two scenarios of water management. Apart from this, sowing date as an adaptation option to offset the likely impacts of climate change was also considered. Increase in temperature resulted in yield declines in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zone. But the humid zone followed a positive trend of gain in yield with rise in temperature up to 4 • C. Within a water regime, increase in CO 2 concentration from 375 to 550 and 700 ppm will exert positive effect on gain in wheat yield but this positive effect is significantly variable in different climatic zones under rainfed conditions than the full irrigation. The highest response was shown by arid zone followed by semi-arid, sub-humid and humid zones. But if the current baseline water regimes (i.e. full irrigation in arid and semi-arid zones and rainfed in sub-humid and humid zones) persist in future, the sub-humid zone will be most benefited in terms of significantly higher percent gain in yield by increasing CO 2 level, mainly because of its rainfed water regime. Within a CO 2 level the changes in water supply from rainfed to full irrigation shows an intense degree of responsiveness in terms of yield gain at 375 ppm CO 2 level compared to 550 and 700 ppm. Arid and semi-arid zones were more responsive compared to subhumid and humid zones. Rise in temperature reduced the length of crop life cycle in all areas, though at an accelerated rate in the humid zone. These results revealed that the climatic zones have shown a variable intensity of vulnerability to different 124 Climatic Change (2009) 94:123-142 scenarios of climate change and water management due to their inherent specific and spatial climatic features. In order to cope with the negative effects of climate change, alteration in sowing date towards cooler months will be an appropriate response by the farmers.

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The snow and glacial resource of the Himalayan region are a major source of fresh water for Indus basin irrigation system on which sustenance of millions of people depends. In the context of recent growth in global warming, it has become inevitable to estimate snow and glacier melt to manage future water resource in this region. In the present study, snow and glacier melt runoff was estimated from various altitudinal ranges and under variable climate scenarios in Gilgit River Basin of Pakistan using an integrated modeling approach. The findings of the study revealed > 80% runoff contribution from 4000 to 5000 m elevation range in the Gilgit Basin. The scenario of temperature increase by 1 °C indicated 9% and 13% rise in annual and summer flows, while 3 °C rise in temperature exhibited an increase of 75% and 95% in annual and summer flows of the Gilgit River. As a result of 10% rise in precipitation, the Gilgit River indicated an increase of 48% in annual and 57% in summer flows. A shift in snow melting period was predicted from April to March due to rising warm temperature. Major contribution in the runoff was estimated from snowmelt followed by glacier melt and rainfall. Overall rising trend in snow cover area was observed in the basin, which support the fact of mass gaining behavior of the Karakoram glaciers. The increased summer flows expected under future climate change in this basin should be managed to fulfill the growing water demands of numerous communities living in the downstream in the future.

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