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In connection with changes in the stress-strain state of the Earth's crust, various physical and mechanical processes, including destruction, take place in the rocks and are accompanied by tectonic earthquakes. Different models have been proposed to describe earthquake preparation and occurrence, depending on the mechanisms and the rates of geodynamic processes. One of the models considers crustal stretching that is characteristic of formation of rift structures. The model uses the data on rock samples that are stretched until destruction in a special laboratory installation. Based on the laboratory modeling, it is established that the samples are destroyed in stages that are interpreted as stages of preparation and occurrence of an earthquake source. The preparation stage of underground tremors is generally manifested by a variety of temporal (long-, medium-and short-term) precursors. The main shortcoming of micro-modeling is that, considering small sizes of the investigated samples, it is impossible to reveal a link between the plastic extension of rocks (taking place in the earthquake hypocenter) and the rock rupture. Plasticity is the ability of certain rocks to change shape and size irreversibly, while the rock continuity is maintained, in response to applied external forces. In order to take into account the effect of plastic deformation of rocks on earthquake preparation and occurrence, we propose not to refer to the diagrams showing stretching of the rock samples, but use a typical diagram of metal stretching, which can be obtained when testing a metal rod for breakage (Fig. 1). The diagram of metal stretching as a function of the relative elongation (to some degree of approximation and taking into account the coefficient of plasticity) can be considered as a model of preparation and occurrence of an earthquake source in case of rifting. The energy released in the period immediately preceding the earthquake contributes to the emergence of its precursors. This article discusses various earthquake precursors with reference to the energy model of tectonic earthquake preparation and occurrence in conditions of crustal stretching.

This paper presents the results of study of seismically induced variations in helium concentration in groundwater in the southern Baikal region. Unlike previous studies, data were obtained not only in Baikal deepwater but also in artesian wells in the southern Baikal region. The correlation coefficients between the data obtained at these observation stations, indicator functions, and an integrated indicator functions were calculated. They provide an objective assessment of time variations in concentrations due to changes in the stress–strain state of the Earth’s crust related to earthquake preparation and hence permit one to predict the time of an earthquake.

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It is known that changes in geochemical fields may be due to the formation and development of earthquake foci. Hydrogeochemical fields at observation sites can be disturbed by underground shocks of sufficient energy, which occur at specific epicentral distances. Our study aimed to reveal these relationships by analysing the concentrations of helium and radon in groundwaters of Southern Pribaikalie, the area around Lake Baikal in Russia. Water samples were taken daily at 10 a.m. from artesian well No. 3 in Zeleny Mys, Irkutsk region. After water sparging, radon concentrations were measured by beta-detection Camera-01 and INGEM-1 (magnetic discharge indicator of helium) to determine helium concentrations. We analysed the concentration values in connection with 22 seismic events that occurred from 2010 to 2016 at the hydrogeochemical observation site (energy classes K of 10.4–14.5; epicentral distances of 40–750 km; conditional energy of K’>6). Based on the radon and helium concentration diagrams, specific regularities were established in the concentration variations before the earthquakes. Generally, concentration variations (increasing/decreasing) in excess of 1.5–2.0 standard deviations preceded earthquakes. This article presents the study results and discusses variations in the radon and helium concentrations, which are due to the seismic process and can be considered as a short-term precursor of earthquakes.