Remittances being a stable inflow of foreign currency, account for a substantial part of India's Balance of Payment account. In several developing countries, remittances exceed the receipts from the export of goods and services, and even capital flows such as Foreign Institutional Investment, Foreign Direct Investment, and Official Development Assistance. Remittances are known for their countercyclical nature during the sharp economic downturns, compared to other financial flows that are typically procyclical. Hence, it is known as a possible financing source for economic evolution in emerging economic systems. It is essential to determine the elements that drive remittances, as it may enable us to channelize this inflow to reap its developmental potential efficiently. Several macroeconomic determinants of remittances are well researched in the literature by researchers around the globe. However, not even a single study has been given to the financial development, determinants of remittances in the Indian setting. Therefore, this survey is a humble effort to bridge this gap. We utilize multiple regression and autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration which finds that several financial developments and financial openness variables have a substantial impact on remittances in the short run as well as in the long run. In accession to that, we incorporate each dummy variable for the global financial crisis and the concurrent negative oil price shock and negative output shock in the host nations. Remittances are found to be resilient during the crisis period while being adversely affected by the adverse economic shocks in the host nations.
Migration and remittances have always been an exciting arena of research for economists around the globe. Remittance flows have evolved as a significant economic variable over the past decade. In several developing countries, remittances exceed the other capital inflows and value of total exports. Thus, it is widely recognised as a potential funding source for economic development in emerging economies. The inflow of remittances to India has increased tremendously in the recent past making the country the highest recipient of remittances across the globe. Remittances are an essential component that contributes to narrowing the Current Account Deficit and has always been a stable constituent of the Balance of Payment. This paper is an attempt to explore the vital macroeconomic variables which determine the remittance flows to India. Notably, we enquire into the dominant motives of remittances in the Indian context. We employ an ARDL approach to cointegration to identify the macroeconomic determinants of remittances and find those crucial variables such as exchange rate, oil price, and domestic GDP substantially impact the flow of remittances. The results also indicate that the migrants are more vulnerable to the oil price shocks in host countries. The overall findings of our study are that (1) remittances are not countercyclical in the Indian context (2) remittances are subject to weak investment motive as opposed to the altruistic motive.
India witnessed demonetisation in November 2016, when high value denomination notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 were withdrawn at a single stroke which extinguished about 86 percent of the total currency value in circulation. Demonetisation which aimed to curb black money, terror funding and counterfeiting at the first place, was later projected as the government's push for digitalisation drive. In this paper, we analyse the effect of demonetisation on digital payments viz. debit card, point of sale transactions, and mobile transactions using an intervention analysis of time series. The findings of the Study negate the impact of demonetisation on digitalisation of the Indian economy.
This paper develops a Structural Satellite version of the Financial-Macroeconometric Model of India (SSFMMI) to examine whether the surge in Nonperforming Assets (NPAs) in Indian Public Sector Banks (PSUs) post-2015 is due to macroeconomic shocks or better classification of loans and cleaning of bank balance sheets. Specifically, the paper analyses the impact of a rainfall shock, domestic food price shock, world oil price shock, fiscal shock, and monetary shock using counterfactual policy simulations and an out-of-sample forecasting framework to validate the impact of these macroeconomic shocks on NPA levels. The paper's outcomes suggest that the late surges in NPAs are not due to macroeconomic shocks and, therefore, that Indian banks are resilient to such shocks. However, the study reveals that the rise in domestic fuel prices and world food prices can cause a surge in NPAs levels.
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