Summary 1.We present a multivariate model of the post-fledging survival of juvenile great and coal tits ( Parus major L. , P. ater L. ) in relation to chick body condition and timing of breeding. Radio-telemetry and colour marks were used to track tit families during 20 days from fledging, that is, the period of post-fledging dependence. Data on 342 chicks of 68 broods were obtained. 2. Forty-seven per cent of juveniles died during the observation period, predation being the main cause of mortality. In the first 4 days after fledging the mortality rate was 5-10% per day. 3. Survival of juveniles was positively correlated with fledging mass. Furthermore, survival strongly decreased during the season. In the second half of June, mortality was five times the rate of mid-May. The differential survival resulted in selection for both early fledging and high fledging mass. Juvenile condition was less important for survival in birds that had fledged early in the season. Their survival rates exceeded 70% in all weight classes, whereas in late broods only the heaviest individuals survived equally well. The survival of birds fledging both late and in poor condition was below 20%. Thus, selection for high fledging mass was much stronger in the late season than in early broods. 4. We conclude that the impact of predation after leaving the nest results in selection for early breeding and, particularly in the late season, for high fledging mass. This may explain why the earliest broods have been found to produce most recruits into the breeding population even if they did not profit from maximum food availability during the nestling period. On the other hand, energetic limitations may constrain the begin of egg laying in adult birds. Thus, counteracting evolutionary responses to the seasonal development of food availability (the caterpillar peak) and to the risk of post-fledging mortality (the peak in post-fledging mortality) may have focused the period of optimal reproduction to a narrow time-window.

Abstract. The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea -Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650-1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810-1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970-2000 and 1750-1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (<i>Parus major</i>) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using path analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea &ndash; Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within animal populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and population dynamics on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the path model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, and consequently, tit population minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large scale climate conditions substantially affect major life-history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries