Recent observations of changes in some tundra ecosystems appear to be responses to a warming climate. Several experimental studies have shown that tundra plants and ecosystems can respond strongly to environmental change, including warming; however, most studies were limited to a single location and were of short duration and based on a variety of experimental designs. In addition, comparisons among studies are difficult because a variety of techniques have been used to achieve experimental warming and different measurements have been used to assess responses. We used metaanalysis on plant community measurements from standardized warming experiments at 11 locations across the tundra biome involved in the International Tundra Experiment. The passive warming treatment increased plant-level air temperature by 1-3°C, which is in the range of predicted and observed warming for tundra regions. Responses were rapid and detected in whole plant communities after only two growing seasons. Overall, warming increased height and cover of deciduous shrubs and graminoids, decreased cover of mosses and lichens, and decreased species diversity and evenness. These results predict that warming will cause a decline in biodiversity across a wide variety of tundra, at least in the short term. They also provide rigorous experimental evidence that recently observed increases in shrub cover in many tundra regions are in response to climate warming. These changes have important implications for processes and interactions within tundra ecosystems and between tundra and the atmosphere.arctic and alpine ecosystems ͉ biodiversity ͉ climate change ͉ vegetation change

Detecting the response of vegetation to climate forcing as distinct from spatial and temporal variability may be difficult, if not impossible, over the typical duration of most field studies. We analyzed the spatial and interannual variability of plant functional type biomass from field studies in low arctic tussock tundra and compared these to climate change simulations of plant community composition using a dynamic tundra vegetation model (ArcVeg). Spatial heterogeneity of peak season live aboveground biomass was estimated using field samples taken from low arctic tundra at Ivotuk, Alaska (68.51N, 155.71W) in 1999. Coefficients of variation for live aboveground biomass at the 1 m 2 scale ranged from 14.6% for deciduous shrubs, 18.5% for graminoids and 25.3% for mosses to over 57% for forbs and lichens. Spatial heterogeneity in the ArcVeg dynamic vegetation model was simulated to be greater than the field data, ranging from 37.1% for deciduous shrubs to 107.9% for forbs. Disturbances in the model, such as caribou grazing and freezing-thawing of soil, as well as demographic stochasticity, led to the greater variability in the simulated results. Temporal variances of aboveground live biomass over a 19-year period using data from Toolik Lake, AK fell within the range of field and simulation spatial variances. However, simulations using ArcVeg suggest that temporal variability can be substantially less than site-scale spatial variability. Field data coupled with ArcVeg simulations of climate change scenarios indicate that some changes in plant community composition may be detectable within two decades following the onset of warming, and shrubs and mosses might be the key indicators of community change. Model simulations also project increasing landscape scale spatial heterogeneity (particularly of shrubs) with increasing temperatures.