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Oct EX71MHES AND LOCAL DEPENDENCE IN DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this Report)Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Extremes; maxima; stationary processes. ABSTRACT (Continue an reverse side if necessary and identify by block numnber)7Extensions of classical extreme value theory to apply to stationary sequences generally make use of two types of dependence restriction: (a) a weak 'mixing condition' restrictine long range dependence; (b) a local condition restricting the 'clustering' of high level exceedances. The purpose of this paper is to investigate extremal properties when the local condition (b) is omitted. It is found that, under general conditions, the type of the limiting distribution for maxima is unaltered. The precise modifications and degree of clustering of . high level exceedances are found to be largely described by a-4C4N4tPJEM) DID JA t 1473 EDITION OF I NOV 65IS 08SOLETE UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Wh~en Date Entered) Vp4. The purpose of this paper is to investigate extremal properties when the local condition (b) is omitted. It is found that, under general conditions, the type of the limiting distribution for maxima is unaltered. The precise modifications and the degree of clustering of high level exceedances are found to be largely described by a parameter here called the "extremal index" of the sequence. SECUftIT1~ CLASSIFICATION OF TIlS A61(WMan

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