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The historical temperature and phenological data were analysed for the region of Sremski Karlovci, one of the oldest grapevine growing areas in Europe, with the aim of detecting trends of changes in the data, evaluating the sensitivity of grapevine phenology to temperature and revealing diversity among cultivars in their response to observed changes in temperature. The onset dates of four major phenological stages (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest), along with the corresponding growth intervals between them, were examined for 20 wine grape cultivars. A number of climatically important parameters for viticulture were calculated for the calendar year, growing season and different grapevine growth periods. Significant increases were detected in average and heat-related extreme temperature indices. The greatest rate of change in temperature variables across the growing season was observed during the period from the beginning of flowering to the beginning of veraison and the smallest during the ripening period. Linear trends indicated that all phenological stages, except budburst, have advanced significantly. Averaged across all cultivars, detected trends were -0·4, -0·7 and -0·6 days/year for the beginning of flowering, the beginning of veraison and harvest date, respectively. Observed warming and change in the timing of phenological events did not significantly affect the duration of the growth intervals, which can be explained by significant inter-correlation between the phenological stages' onset. Ripening was occurring under warmer conditions due to earlier flowering and veraison, rather than because of considerably higher temperatures preceding harvest or shortening of the ripening period. Most of the variation in phenology timing (74-90%) can be explained by a linear relationship between the onset date of phenological stage and temperature, with mean and maximum temperatures being more important than minimum temperatures. According to the current results, a 1°C increase in the most influential temperature variable during the most relevant periods for the onset of phenological stages led to an advancement in the beginning of budburst, the beginning of flowering, the beginning of veraison and harvest by 3·6, 3·1, 5·2 and 7·4 days, respectively, on average for all cultivars. Among the cultivars studied, Pinot Noir displayed the greatest phenology advancement in response to increased temperature.

Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate-fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21 st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 °C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 °C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 °C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 °C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment.