Following the avian influenza epidemics that occurred in Italy between 1997 and 2003, the Italian Ministry of Health in collaboration with veterinary authorities promoted, funded and implemented a national surveillance programme. The main objectives of the surveillance effort were to identify avian influenza viruses circulating in wild birds and to investigate the role of backyard poultry flocks in the dynamics of infection in a densely populated poultry area. Over 2 years (2004 to 2006), 164 backyard flocks and 4083 wild birds (mainly migratory Anseriformes and Charadriiformes) were sampled in three regions in the North of Italy. Samples collected were screened by means of real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and the positive samples were processed for attempted virus isolation in embryonated fowl's specific pathogen free eggs. At the end of the study period, 27 low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses had been isolated from backyard flocks and 49 strains obtained from wild birds. Of these, 26 belonged to the H5 or H7 subtype and were closely related to contemporary low-pathogenic strains of Eurasian lineage. The findings confirm that backyard free-range farming is at high risk for avian influenza virus introduction, and confirm the role of wild waterfowl in the introduction and perpetuation of low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses during the winter season in Southern Europe.

To predict the risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in livestock in Europe introduced through immature Hyalomma marginatum ticks on migratory birds under current conditions and in the decade 2075-2084 under a climate-change scenario. A spatial risk map of Europe comprising 14 282 grid cells (25 × 25 km) was constructed using three data sources: (i) ranges and abundances of four species of bird which migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe each spring, namely Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus), Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) and Common quail (Coturnix coturnix); (ii) UK Met Office HadRM3 spring temperatures for prediction of moulting success of immature H. marginatum ticks and (iii) livestock densities. On average, the number of grid cells in Europe predicted to have at least one CCHFV incursion in livestock in spring was 1·04 per year for the decade 2005-2014 and 1·03 per year for the decade 2075-2084. In general with the assumed climate-change scenario, the risk increased in northern Europe but decreased in central and southern Europe, although there is considerable local variation in the trends. The absolute risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through ticks introduced by four abundant species of migratory bird (totalling 120 million individual birds) is very low. Climate change has opposing effects, increasing the success of the moult of the nymphal ticks into adults but decreasing the projected abundance of birds by 34% in this model. For Europe, climate change is not predicted to increase the overall risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through infected ticks introduced by these four migratory bird species

Anseriformes are the reservoir of low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAIV). Studies have shown a high LPAIV prevalence associated with low antibody detection in a wild duck population in northern European countries, whereas in winter areas (Mediterranean basin), low viral detection and high seroprevalence were observed. In order to gain insight into the role played by both population recruitment and migration on AIV persistence, an epidemiological model was developed. A susceptible, infectious and removed (immune or dead)-individuals model coupling population and infection dynamics was developed to simulate LPAIV circulation in dabbling ducks throughout the entire year. The transmission coefficient (beta) was calculated using the original dataset of published works, whereas dabbling duck demographic parameters were obtained from the literature. The estimated host density threshold for virus persistence is 380 susceptible individuals per day whereas the critical community size needed for maintaining the virus throughout the winter has been estimated to be about 1200 individuals. The model showed peaks of viral prevalence after nesting and during the moult period because of population recruitment and high host density, respectively. During the winter and spring periods, the viruses reach the minimal endemic level and local extinction is highly probable because of stochastic phenomena, respectively 80% and 90% of probabilities. The most sensitive parameters of the model are the recruitment rate of young susceptible animals and the duration of virus shedding.

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Patterns of roe deer Capreolus capreolus body development are particularly interesting in view of the wide distribution range and different habitat conditions faced by the species throughout Europe. In order to investigate patterns of roe deer fawn body development in a sub‐Mediterranean ecosystem, we caught 78 fawns during the four fawning seasons of 1997–2000. We investigated the effect of gender and date and year of birth on body mass of fawns in their first month of life. In agreement with earlier studies, there was a period of linear growth during which we found no differences in body mass between the sexes. Body mass varied significantly between years. The mean birth weight of 1,500 g did not show overall yearly variations, but fawns were heavier in 2000 than in 1998. Daily weight gain was more variable between years with fawns born in 2000 growing faster than fawns born in 1999 and 1997. Lastly, when fawns were split into two categories according to birth weight, light‐born fawns had a significantly faster body development than heavy‐born fawns. Therefore, we suggest that roe deer fawns may compensate for a low weight at birth. Such a compensatory process allows light‐born fawns to catch up with heavy‐born fawns by the end of their first month of life.