In this work, the prediction of the distribution of M. urundeuva Fr. All. was performed based on the region of natural occurrence of the species. Its geographic coordinates were obtained from online databases CRIA and SpecialLinks, from scientific articles and fieldwork carried out by Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) in Ilha Solteira, São Paulo, Brazil. M. urundeuva is a native tree species with great potential for commercial use in Brazil. For this purpose, ecological niche modeling was used, with current layers of climate variables and layers prepared for future climate scenarios, according to the 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4/IPCC), using Worldclim data on Brazil. With the Open Modeller and ArcGIS programs, maps were generated to predict its occurrence for the current period and future climate scenarios, made according to the projections of global climate changes. With the projection of increases in temperature and precipitation in the area where the species occurs, it tends to migrate to areas of Brazil where the climate is currently milder, in the south and southeast regions. Due to climatic changes, the species tends to undergo changes in distribution and area size until 2080. It was projected for Caatinga and Pantanal, in both periods, an increase in area, while for the Cerrado, in the first period, the area increased, and, for the second, it decreased. Therefore, according to the results of the maps of future projections for the next decades, it is concluded that there will be changes in the distribution of M. urundeuva, with a significant reduction of the potential area of occurrence in the region.

Resumo -A araucária (Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze.), conhecida como pinheiro-do-paraná, é uma espécie florestal nativa do Brasil, adaptada às regiões serranas frias e úmidas do sul e do sudeste do país e torna-se vulnerável diante das mudanças climáticas globais. Apresenta grande valor econômico, social e ambiental, pois é uma das espécies nativas com maior incremento e potencial de ganho genético, apresenta excelente qualidade de madeira e ainda produz sementes que podem ser usadas na alimentação humana e animal. Com o objetivo de conhecer a distribuição natural atual e o habitat das populações, percorremos parte das bordas da região de ocorrência da araucária, marcando a posição geográfica e altitude. Com as informações de campo, juntamente com dados secundários do Centro de Informações Ambientais (CRIA), mapeamos a distribuição da araucária no presente e simulamos para as próximas décadas, considerando a projeção de cenários climáticos futuros. Estes estudos são essenciais para a melhor compreensão dos riscos de extinção e das medidas mitigadoras que poderiam ser adotadas para reduzir os impactos das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a espécie, contribuindo, dessa maneira, para a sua conservação. Distribution and habitat of brazilian-pine according to global climate changeAbstract -Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze., also known as brazilian-pine, is a forest native species from Brazil. A. angustifolia is more vulnerable to global climate change, considering it is living in cold and humid mountain regions from southern and southeastern Brazil. Among the native Brazilian forest species, it presents one of the greatest growth and genetic gain potential. It shows excellent wood quality and can still be used in human and animal food, presenting great economic, social and environmental value. In order to determine current distribution of the species and better know its habitat, we worked in the regions representing the borders of natural occurrence, identifying populations and getting trees altitude and geographycal position. Field information along with secondary data from the Environmental Information Center (CRIA) were used to map current distribution of brazilian-pine and to project the distribution in the next decades, with the projection of future climate scenarios. Mapping studies of ecological niches in present and future climate scenarios characterizing the environments in which they are living is essential for a better understanding of the risks of species extinction and which mitigating measures could be adequate to reduce the impacts of global climate change on species, thus contributing to the conservation and knowledge of this important species.

Haddad, pelas contribuições, em fases distintas do projeto; Aos funcionários e estagiários da Biblioteca Central (ESALQ/USP), à equipe "Xerox do CALQ", e às funcionárias da Seção de Alunos-Pós Graduação, pela paciência com as eternas "urgências" e pela gentileza no atendimento; Aos amigos Norberto Noronha Cornejo e Sonia Marta Carpinelli, por todo o auxílio e companheirismo dedicados ao longo desta nossa passagem por Piracicaba. "Um amigo representa uma só alma em dois corpos"; Aos amigos Ms. Christiano A. Andrade e Eng. Agr. Alex Paulus, pelo constante incentivo e amizade, além das contribuições e sugestões;

Geographic distribution forecast of Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze. was studied. This is a native species that occurs more frequently in the southern region of Brazil and, to a lesser extent, in the southeasthern region. The study was based on points of occurrence that were collected over several years by Embrapa Forests and complemented by points obtained from herbaria, banks and several educational institutions, including the biological collections database Reference Center Environmental Information (CRIA), which gathers information from various herbaria in Brazil. We used mathematical models occurrence prediction, including: Bioclim, and Niche Mosaic. The models were selected for best representing the regions of occurrence. In addition to the points of occurrence, to compose the spatial modeling environmental data, climate, soil, and topography were needed. In the study we used only climate data such as the average minimum air temperature, average maximum air temperature, accumulated rainfall, and average relative humidity. We didn't use soil data because there was not a detailed survey available throughout the area of occurrence of the species. We conclude that the naturally occurring region of Araucaria was well represented using only the climate data and two models that well represented the occurrence of regions. With climate change, there is a strong tendency to reduce the potential area of Araucaria in Brazil, especially in regions at lower latitudes and altitudes.

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