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Greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost in arctic ecosystems may amplify globalwarming, yet estimates of the rate of carbon release, and the proportion of carbon released as methane (CH 4 ) or carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), have a high degree of uncertainty. There are many areas where no measurements exist, and few year-round or long-term records. Existing year-round eddy covariance measurements of arctic CH 4 fluxes suggest that nongrowing season emissions make up a significant proportion of tundra systems emissions on an annual basis. Here we present continuous CH 4 flux measurements made at Eight Mile Lake, an upland tundra ecosystem undergoing permafrost degradation in Interior Alaska. We found net CH 4 emissions throughout the year (1.2 ∓ 0.011 g C-CH 4 m 2 /yr) that made up 61% of total radiative forcing from annual C emissions (CO 2 and CH 4 ; 32.3 g C m 2 /yr) when taking into account the greenhouse warming potential of CH 4 relative to CO 2 . Nongrowing season emissions accounted for 50% of the annual CH 4 budget, characterized by large pulse emissions. These were related to abrupt increases in air and shallow soil temperatures rather than consistent emissions during the zero curtain-a period of the fall/early winter season when subsurface soil temperatures remain near the 0°C freezing point. Weekly growing season CH 4 emissions in 2016 and 2017 were significantly related with thaw depth, and the magnitude of CH 4 emissions between these seasons was proportional to the rate of active layer thaw throughout the season.Arctic tundra systems account for an estimated 19 Tg/yr of global CH 4 emissions at present, but there are large uncertainties (8-29 Tg/yr) owing to scarce spatial coverage and the paucity of year-round or TAYLOR ET AL. 2695 Key Points: • Arctic permafrost tundra ecosystem is an annual net source of CH 4 • Nongrowing season emissions make up 45% of annual CH 4 loss • Thaw depth is a significant driver of growing season CH 4 emissions Data gaps were filled using the marginal distribution sampling (MDS) algorithm (Reichstein et al., 2005) in REddyProc (Wutzler et al., 2018) that excluded data >2 standard deviations from the overall mean of the

In the last few decades, temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice as much as the rest of the globe. As permafrost thaws in response to this warming, large amounts of soil organic matter may become vulnerable to decomposition. Microbial decomposition will release carbon (C) from permafrost soils, however, warmer conditions could also lead to enhanced plant growth and C uptake. Field and modeling studies show high uncertainty in soil and plant responses to climate change but there have been few studies that reconcile field and model data to understand differences and reduce uncertainty. Here, we evaluate gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R eco ), and net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra against equivalent fluxes from the Community Land Model during simulations parameterized to reflect the field conditions associated with this manipulative field experiment. Over the eight-year experimental period, soil temperatures and thaw depths increased with warming in field observations and model simulations. However, the field and model results do not agree on warming effects on water table depth; warming created wetter soils in the field and drier soils in the models. In the field, initial increases in growing season GPP, R eco , and NEE to experimentally-induced permafrost thaw created a higher C sink capacity in the first years followed by a stronger C source in years six through eight. In contrast, both models predicted linear increases in GPP, R eco , and NEE with warming. The divergence of model results from field experiments reveals the role subsidence, hydrology, and nutrient cycling play in influencing the C flux responses to permafrost thaw, a complexity that the models are not structurally able to predict, and highlight challenges associated with projecting C cycle dynamics across the Arctic.

Permafrost thaw is typically measured with active layer thickness, or the maximum seasonal thaw measured from the ground surface. However, previous work has shown that this measurement alone fails to account for ground subsidence and therefore underestimates permafrost thaw. To determine the impact of subsidence on observed permafrost thaw and thawed soil carbon stocks, we quantified subsidence using high‐accuracy GPS and identified its environmental drivers in a permafrost warming experiment near the southern limit of permafrost in Alaska. With permafrost temperatures near 0°C, 10.8 cm of subsidence was observed in control plots over 9 years. Experimental air and soil warming increased subsidence by five times and created inundated microsites. Across treatments, ice and soil loss drove 85–91% and 9–15% of subsidence, respectively. Accounting for subsidence, permafrost thawed between 19% (control) and 49% (warming) deeper than active layer thickness indicated, and the amount of newly thawed carbon within the active layer was between 37% (control) and 113% (warming) greater. As additional carbon thaws as the active layer deepens, carbon fluxes to the atmosphere and lateral transport of carbon in groundwater could increase. The magnitude of this impact is uncertain at the landscape scale, though, due to limited subsidence measurements. Therefore, to determine the full extent of permafrost thaw across the circumpolar region and its feedback on the carbon cycle, it is necessary to quantify subsidence more broadly across the circumpolar region.