Detecting coherent signals of climate change is best achieved by conducting expansive, long-term studies. Here, using counts of waders (Charadrii) collected from ca. 3500 sites over 30 years and covering a major portion of western Europe, we present the largestscale study to show that faunal abundance is influenced by climate in winter. We demonstrate that the 'weighted centroids' of populations of seven species of wader occurring in internationally important numbers have undergone substantial shifts of up to 115 km, generally in a northeasterly direction. To our knowledge, this shift is greater than that recorded in any other study, but closer to what would be expected as a result of the spatial distribution of ecological zones. We establish that year-to-year changes in site abundance have been positively correlated with concurrent changes in temperature, but that this relationship is most marked towards the colder extremities of the birds' range, suggesting that shifts have occurred as a result of range expansion and that responses to climate change are temperature dependent. Many attempts to model the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of organisms, assume uniform responses or shifts throughout a species' range or with temperature, but our results suggest that this may not be a valid approach. We propose that, with warming temperatures, hitherto unsuitable sites in northeastern Europe will host increasingly important wader numbers, but that this may not be matched by declines elsewhere within the study area. The need to establish that such changes are occurring is accentuated by the statutory importance of this taxon in the designation of protected areas.

Under climate warming, migratory birds should align reproduction dates with advancing plant and arthropod phenology. To arrive on the breeding grounds earlier, migrants may speed up spring migration by curtailing the time spent en route, possibly at the cost of decreased survival rates. Based on a decades-long series of observations along an entire flyway, we show that when refuelling time is limited, variation in food abundance in the spring staging area affects fitness. Bar-tailed godwits migrating from West Africa to the Siberian Arctic reduce refuelling time at their European staging site and thus maintain a close match between breeding and tundra phenology. Annual survival probability decreases with shorter refuelling times, but correlates positively with refuelling rate, which in turn is correlated with food abundance in the staging area. This chain of effects implies that conditions in the temperate zone determine the ability of godwits to cope with climate-related changes in the Arctic.

Summary 1.Whether intertidal areas are used to capacity by shorebirds can best be answered by large-scale manipulation of foraging areas. The recent overexploitation of benthic resources in the western Dutch Wadden Sea offers such an 'experimental' setting. 2. We review the effects of declining food abundances on red knot Calidris canutus islandica numbers, based on a yearly large-scale benthic mapping effort, long-term colour-ringing and regular bird-counts from 1996 to 2005. We focus on the three-way relationships between suitable foraging area, the spatial predictability of food and red knot survival. 3. For each benthic sampling position, red knot intake rate (mg AFDM s ) was predicted by a multiple prey species functional response model, based on digestive rate maximization (this model explained diet and intake rate in earlier studies on red knots). This enabled us to derive the spatial distribution of the suitable foraging area, which in each of the 10 years was analysed with a measure of autocorrelation, i.e. Moran's I. 4. Over the 10 years, when accounting for a threshold value to meet energetic demands, red knots lost 55% of their suitable foraging area. This ran parallel to a decrease in red knot numbers by 42%. Although there was also a decrease in patchiness (i.e. less information about the location of the suitable feeding sites), this did not yet lead to additional loss of birds. 5. To cope with these landscape-scale declines in food stocks, an increase in the capacity for instantaneous food processing would be required. Although we show that red knots indeed enlarged their muscular gizzards, the increase in gizzard size was not enough to compensate for the decreased feeding area. 6. Survival of islandica knots in the western Dutch Wadden Sea, based on colour-ring resightings, declined from 89% in the first half of our study period to 82% in the second half of our study period and could account for almost half of the decline in red knot numbers; the rest must have moved elsewhere in winter. 7. Densities of red knots per unit suitable foraging area remained constant at 10 knots ha )1 between 1996 and 2005, which suggests that red knots have been using the Dutch Wadden Sea to full capacity.

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Many wildlife-monitoring programmes have long time series of species abundance that cannot be summarized adequately by linear trend lines. To describe long time series better, generalized additive models may be used to obtain a smooth trend line through abundance data. We describe another approach to estimate a smoothed trend line through time series consisting of one observation per time point, such as year or month. This method is based on structural time-series models in combination with the Kalman filter and is computerized in the TrendSpotter software. One of its strengths is the possibility to test changes in smoothed abundances between years, taking into account serial correlation. The trend method is applied in the Dutch Waterbird Monitoring Scheme (DWMS), a monitoring scheme for migrating and overwintering waterbirds. Taking the numbers of overwintering Greater Scaup (Aythia marila) in the Netherlands as an example, we demonstrate three applications of the method: (1) trend calculation and classification for each year in the time series, (2) assessing alerts for alarming population declines and (3) testing yearly abundance against a population threshold. We discuss the situations where TrendSpotter is to be preferred over other methods.