The efficient representation of all species in conservation planning is problematic. Often, species distribution is assessed by dividing the land into a grid; complementary sets of grids, in which each taxon is represented at least once, are then sought. To determine if this approach provides useful surrogate information, species and higher taxon data for South African plants and animals were analyzed. Complementary species sets did not coincide and overlapped little with higher taxon sets. Survey extent and taxonomic knowledge did not affect this overlap. Thus, the assumptions of surrogacy, on which so much conservation planning is based, are not supported.

Two correlative approaches to the challenge of ecological niche modeling (genetic algorithm, maximum entropy) were used to estimate the potential global distribution of the invasive fruit fly, Bactrocera invadens, based on associations between known occurrence records and a set of environmental predictor variables. The two models yielded similar estimates, largely corresponding to Equatorial climate classes with high levels of precipitation. The maximum entropy approach was somewhat more conservative in its evaluation of suitability, depending on thresholds for presence/absence that are selected, largely excluding areas with distinct dry seasons; the genetic algorithm models, in contrast, indicate that climate class as partly suitable. Predictive tests based on independent distributional data indicate that model predictions are quite robust. Field observations in Benin and Tanzania confirm relationships between seasonal occurrences of this species and humidity and temperature.