The experiments with three general circulation models (GCMs) by three regional atmospheric models (RAMs) for the dynamical downscaling (DDS) have been performed to evaluate the uncertainty in the global warming response during summertime in Hokkaido, Japan. The results of a 10-year RAM integration nested into GCM under present or future climate conditions were synthesized after applying bias correction. For the target decades during which the global-mean temperature increases by 2 K in each GCM, the DDS results indicate that surface air temperature and precipitation mostly depend on the GCM imposed as the lateral boundary condition.

Abstract:This paper introduces a method named "hybrid-downscaling" to estimate the future extreme hourly precipitation intensity based on observational evidence of the 99th percentile precipitation intensity against air temperature in Sapporo and Tokyo, Japan. The future projected air temperature under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B was used after dynamical downscaling using 3 different regional atmospheric models (RAMs) with lateral boundary conditions from 3 different general circulation models (GCMs). We analyzed the 99th percentile of hourly precipitation intensity against daily mean air temperature in Sapporo and Tokyo. The 99th percentile precipitation intensity tended to have an approximate equation in which the rate of increment was similar to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate of change in the saturated water vapor. This study also showed that the precipitable water vapor and the convective instability followed the Clausius-Clapeyron-like rate of change during the hours with the 99th percentile precipitation intensity.

The study was conducted to investigate the impacts of Brahmaputra riverbank erosion hazard on livelihood pattern of char people, agriculture and environment. Five villages of Mymensingh district near to the Brahmaputra River were selected. A semi-structured questionnaire, interview, secondary data sources, field observation and focus group discussion were utilized for this study. Result revealed that erosion has a great impact on livelihood, agriculture, environment and other sectors. Population displacement is a common phenomenon in the study area due to riverbank erosion. During the river erosion 73% people took temporary and 27% took permanent migration where 26% had chosen town as permanent migration. About 56% people loss 0 to 5 acres and 33% loss 6 to 10 acres of their land. Before riverbank erosion 61% people were involved in farming but after riverbank erosion it decreased into 24%. About 88% respondents used tube well as the main source of drinking water, which was smaller than that of the national rural rate 96.42% and some people used river water as drinking, bathing, washing clothes and household materials, and that was so unhygienic. The major diseases like diarrhea, dysentery, asthma, TB, typhoid, etc. were prevalence during flood and river erosion as well as medical facility was also poor. Only 9% people used medicine from consultant doctor. The study has explored a negative fact that without any organizational support, the people of the villages have to formulate and undertake various adaptation techniques in their own way. Finally, the study has recommended some suggestions for the policy planners and implementers for the future development of the riverbank erosion victims in Bangladesh. It emphasizes the importance of the government and non-governmental organizations to take their own responsibility to the devastating situation of the riverbank erosion.Progressive Agriculture 28 (2): 73-83, 2017

Pakistan and northwestern India have frequently experienced severe heavy rainfall events during the boreal summer over the last 50 years including an event in late July and early August 2010 due to a sequence of monsoon surges. This study identified five dominant atmospheric patterns by applying principal component analysis and k-means clustering to a long-term sea level pressure dataset from 1979 to 2014. Two of these five dominant atmospheric patterns corresponded with a high frequency of the persistent atmospheric blocking index and positive sea level pressure over western Russia as well as an adjacent meridional trough ahead of northern Pakistan. In these two groups, a negative sea surface temperature anomaly was apparent over the equatorial mid-to eastern Pacific Ocean. The heavy precipitation periods with high persistent blocking frequency in western Russia as in the 2010 heat wave tended to have 1.2 times larger precipitation intensity compared to the whole of the heavy precipitation periods during the 36 years.

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