Variable annuity (VA) policies are typically issued on mutual funds invested in both fixed income and equity asset classes. However, due to the lack of specialized models to represent the dynamics of fixed income fund returns, the literature has primarily focused on studying long-term investment guarantees on single-asset equity funds. This article develops a mixed bond and equity fund model in which the fund return is linked to movements of the yield curve. Theoretical motivation for our proposed specification is provided through an analogy with a portfolio of rolling horizon bonds. Moreover, basis risk between the portfolio return and its risk drivers is naturally incorporated into our framework. Numerical results show that the fit of our model to Canadian VA data is adequate. Finally, the valuation of VAs is illustrated and it is found that the prevailing interest rate environment can have a substantial impact on guarantee costs.

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A new process-the factorial hidden Markov volatility (FHMV) model-is proposed to model financial returns or realized variances. Its dynamics are driven by a latent volatility process specified as a product of three components: a Markov chain controlling volatility persistence, an independent discrete process capable of generating jumps in the volatility, and a predictable (data-driven) process capturing the leverage effect. An economic interpretation is attached to each one of these components. Moreover, the Markov chain and jump components allow volatility to switch abruptly between thousands of states, and the transition matrix of the model is structured to generate a high degree of volatility persistence. An empirical study on six financial time series shows that the FHMV process compares favorably to state-of-the-art volatility models in terms of in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance over time horizons ranging from one to one hundred days.

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