Multiple myeloma (MM) is consistently preceded by precursor conditions recognized clinically as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) or smoldering myeloma (SMM). We interrogate, for the first time, the whole genome sequence (WGS) profile of 18 MGUS and compare them with those from 14 SMMs and 80 MMs. We show that cases with a non-progressing, clinically stable myeloma precursor condition (n=15) are characterized by later initiation in the patient’s life and by the absence of myeloma defining genomic events including: chromothripsis, templated insertions, mutations in driver genes, aneuploidy, and canonical APOBEC mutational activity. This data provides evidence that WGS can be used to recognize two biologically and clinically distinct myeloma precursor entities that are either progressive or stable.

Chromothripsis is detectable in 20-30% of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients and is emerging as a new independent adverse prognostic factor. In this study, we interrogate 752 NDMM patients using whole genome sequencing (WGS) to study the relationship of copy number (CN) signatures to chromothripsis and show they are highly associated. CN signatures are highly predictive of the presence of chromothripsis (AUC=0.90) and can be used to identify its adverse prognostic impact. The ability of CN signatures to predict the presence of chromothripsis was confirmed in a validation series of WGS comprised of 235 hematological cancers (AUC=0.97) and an independent series of 34 NDMM (AUC=0.87). We show that CN signatures can also be derived from whole exome data (WES) and using 677 cases from the same series of NDMM, we were able to predict both the presence of chromothripsis (AUC=0.82) and its adverse prognostic impact. CN signatures constitute a flexible tool to identify the presence of chromothripsis and is applicable to WES and WGS data.