No abstract

Management actions designed to mitigate development or anthropogenic impacts on species of conservation concern are often implemented without quantifying the benefit to the species. It is often unclear what combinations and intensities of management actions are required to achieve meaningful conservation outcomes. We investigate whether disease and predator control can reverse population declines of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus). Based on longitudinal monitoring of the epidemiological and demographic status of over 500 animals over 4 years, coupled with an intensive disease and predator management programme, we use survival analyses to estimate annual age‐specific survival rates and population growth, and simulations to quantify the benefit of these actions. Predation and disease accounted for 63% and 29% of mortality, respectively, across all years, with wild dog (dingoes or dingo‐hybrids: Canis dingo, C. dingo × Canis familiaris), carpet pythons (Morelia spilota) and domestic dogs (C. familiaris) accounting for 82%, 14% and 4% of confirmed predation mortalities, respectively. In the first 2 years, before disease and dog control had major impact, the population was declining rapidly with annual growth rates of 0.66 and 0.90. In the third and fourth years, after interventions had been fully implemented, the population growth rate had increased to 1.08 and 1.20. The intrinsic survival rate of joeys was 71.2% (excluding deaths resulting from the death of the mother). Adult survival rates varied as a function of sex, age and year. Even in a declining koala population, management actions can achieve meaningful conservation outcomes (population growth rates greater than one). However, benefits may be short‐lived in the absence of longer term strategies to manage threats. This work also identifies wild dogs as a major threat to koalas, highlighting the need to better understand how wild dog impacts vary in space and time. Policy implications. Offsetting policy that addresses habitat loss alone may achieve little or no meaningful benefit to declining koalas populations. Management must address suites of threats affecting these populations and ensure that the cumulative effects of these actions achieve positive population growth rates.

1. Protected areas often need to provide recreational opportunities whilst conserving biodiversity. Recreation brings important benefits to human well-being, and allowing people to experience nature in protected areas can also provide revenue and support for conservation objectives. However, not all recreational activities are compatible with environmental management goals. 2. Here, we show how a coastal protected area can be zoned to satisfy both recreational and conservation objectives. 3. We collected empirical data on the effect of recreational disturbance to foraging shorebirds in Moreton Bay Marine Park, Queensland, Australia, and calculated the benefit of alternative protected area zone types on shorebird representation using a zero-inflated negative binomial model. The predictions from this model were used to optimize a zoning plan in a linear programming framework that balances recreational use with shorebird conservation. Costs reflect foregone recreational opportunity, thereby facilitating solutions that minimize restrictions on recreational use of the coastline. 4. We discover a consistent negative effect of recreational use of the foreshore on shorebird occupancy and abundance and show that, despite this, zoning can be used to achieve shorebird representation targets with only a small cost to recreational opportunity. 5. When dog recreation is permitted at all sites, a 91% shorebird representation target can be met, indicating that de facto patterns of recreation were rather well segregated from areas used by shorebirds. By restricting dog recreation to five sites and allowing people to access all other foreshore sites, shorebird representation increased to 97%. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our approach of calculating the contribution of each zone type towards conservation objectives results in zoning plans with robust estimates of conservation benefit that can be readily implemented by managers. Specifically, we estimated the effects of removing people and domestic dog recreation within each intertidal site on shorebird abundance to inform coastal zoning plans. Incorporating cost as foregone recreational opportunity results in zoning plans that minimize the number of people required to make a behavioural change. Compliance to zone types is often ultimately voluntary so integrating the current intensity of recreational use is more likely to generate workable zoning plans.