Background To study male-female and age differences in estimates of rapid transition from first full drink to alcohol dependence among youthful newly incident drinkers in the United States (US). Method The study population included 12-to-25-year-old non-institutionalized US civilian residents, sampled for US National Surveys on Drug Use and Health 2002–2013, with assessments via confidential computer assisted self-interviews. Newly incident drinkers are those who had their first full drink soon before the assessment (n=32,562 12–25 year olds). Alcohol dependence (AD) criteria are from DSM-IV. Results For 12-to-25-year-old females, the peak risk for making a rapid transition from first full drink to alcohol dependence is seen during adolescence, followed by declining estimates (meta-analysis summary=3% at 12–17 years of age, 95% CI= 2%, 3%). Among males, corresponding estimates fluctuate around 2%, with no appreciable differences across age strata. Among 12-to-17-year-old newly incident drinkers, there is a female excess in the rapid transition to alcohol dependence; a male excess is observed among young adult newly incident drinkers. Evaluated cohort-wise, using an epidemiological mutoscope view, individual cohorts show a congruent pattern, with age at first drink held constant. Conclusions Studying multiple replication samples of young newly incident drinkers, we discovered a clear female excess in the risk of a rapid transition from first full drink to alcohol dependence among adolescents, with age patterns differing across males and females.

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The global influenza pandemic that emerged in 1918 has become the event of reference for a broad spectrum of policymakers seeking to learn from the past. This article sheds light on multiple waves of excess mortality that occurred in the US state of Michigan at the time with insights into how epidemics might evolve and propagate across space and time. We analyzed original monthly data on all-cause deaths by county for the 83 counties of Michigan and interpreted the results in the context of what is known about the pandemic. Counties in Michigan experienced up to four waves of excess mortality over a span of two years, including a severe one in early 1920. Some counties experienced two waves in late 1918 while others had only one. The 1920 wave propagated across the state in a different manner than the fall and winter 1918 waves. The twin waves in late 1918 were likely related to the timing of the statewide imposition of a three-week social distancing order. Michigan’s experience holds sobering lessons for those who wish to understand how immunologically naïve populations encounter novel viral pathogens.

The attempt to rapidly increase access to primary education in developing countries like India over the past decade has created a need to commensurately increase the number of teachers in the system. In order to meet the burgeoning demand for additional teachers amidst fiscal constraints, India has chosen to actively promote the hiring of contract teachers. This paper reviews the appointments, salary structure, and training of contract teachers, and presents the argument that the salary and work conditions of contract teachers in India as well as the lack of adequate training negatively impacts their motivation, morale and long-term commitment to teaching, with potentially serious implications for education quality. A synthesis of the literature on teacher preparation in the United States is also presented in order to analyze how this body of knowledge can better inform the contract teacher debate in India.

Aim To analyze interrelationships in the consumption of opiates and cannabinoids in a legal regime and, specifically, whether consumers of opiates and cannabinoids treat them as substitutes for each other. Method Econometric dynamic panel data models for opium consumption are estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM). A unique dataset containing information about opiate (opium) consumption from the Punjab province of British India for the years 1907–1918 is analyzed (n=272) as a function of its own price, the prices of two forms of cannabis (the leaf (bhang), and the resin (charas, or hashish)), and wage income. Cross-price elasticities are examined to reveal substitution or complementarity between opium and cannabis. Results Opium is a substitute for charas (or hashish), with a cross price elasticity (β3) of 0.14 (p < 0.05), but not for bhang (cannabis leaves; cross price elasticity = 0.00, p > 0.10). Opium consumption (β1 = 0.47 to 0.49, p < 0.01) shows properties of habit persistence consistent with addiction. The consumption of opium is slightly responsive (inelastic) to changes in its own price (β2 = −0.34 to −0.35, p < 0.05 to 0.01) and consumer wages (β4 = 0.15, p < 0.05). Conclusion Opium and hashish, a form of cannabis, are substitutes. In addition, opium consumption displays properties of habit persistence and slight price and wage income responsiveness (inelasticity) consistent with an addictive substance.