In remote northern regions, lacking deep geothermal exploratory boreholes, a theoretical approach to provide a first-order estimate of the stress regime seems a useful tool. Literature data was used in this context to evaluate the orientation of the stress components and empirical relationships were applied to calculate their magnitude in a community of Nunavik, northern Quebec. A Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis was carried out due to the uncertainty of the input parameters. Mohr-Coulomb friction and slip tendency analyses were additionally undertaken to assess the stress state and potential reactivation of existing fractures. The results highlight how the poor knowledge of the stress field has an important impact on the design and development of engineered geothermal energy systems in the Canadian off-grid community of Kuujjuaq.

is a post-doc fellow, Inès Kanzari is a master student, Mafalda M. Miranda is a PhD student and Jasmin Raymond is a Professor: they all work at the Institut national de la recherche scientifique-Centre Eau Terre Environnement (INRS-ETE) in Québec City, Canada. They are also members of the Centre d'études nordiques (CEN). Chrystel Dezayes is a research fellow at the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) in Orléans, France.

Deep geothermal energy sources harvested by circulating fluids in engineered geothermal energy systems can be a solution for diesel-based northern Canadian communities. However, poor knowledge of relevant geology and thermo-hydro-mechanical data introduces significant uncertainty in numerical simulations. Here, a first-order assessment was undertaken following a “what-if” approach to help design an engineered geothermal energy system for each of the uncertain scenarios. Each possibility meets the thermal energy needs of the community, keeping the water losses, the reservoir flow impedance and the thermal drawdown within predefined targets. Additionally, the levelized cost of energy was evaluated using the Monte Carlo method to deal with the uncertainty of the inputs and assess their influence on the output response. Hydraulically stimulated geothermal reservoirs of potential commercial interest were simulated in this work. In fact, the probability of providing heating energy at a lower cost than the business-as-usual scenario with oil furnaces ranges between 8 and 92%. Although the results of this work are speculative and subject to uncertainty, geothermal energy seems a potentially viable alternative solution to help in the energy transition of remote northern communities.

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