Chile is a country that depends on the extraction and export of its natural resources. This phenomenon has exacerbated different processes of transformation and disturbance of natural and human ecosystems. Land use change has become a key factor for the transformation of ecosystems, causing consequences for biodiversity conservation. In this study, current and future (2030, 2050 and 2080) land use categories were evaluated. Land use projections were analysed together with models of ecosystem distribution in Chile under different climate scenarios, to finally analyse different dynamics of land use change within the protected areas system. In all the scenarios evaluated, land use projections showed an increase in the areas of industrial forest plantations and urban areas and a decrease in natural and agricultural areas could be expected. In relation to ecosystem modeling, vegetational formations located in the center and south of the country could be expected to decrease, while vegetational formations in the north and center of the country could extend their surface area. Inside Chile’s protected area network, anthropic disturbances are currently undergoing expansion, which could have consequences for ecosystems and protected areas located in the central and central–south zones of Chile.

En este artículo se analizan los cambios productivos —particularmente en uso de suelo por provincia y región de Chile— y en la comercialización internacional de cultivos agrícolas. Mientras la superficie agrícola se ha mantenido relativamente estable en el país, entre 1955 y 2017 el área cultivada con cereales se contrajo casi a la mitad y la superficie de frutales creció casi cuatro veces. La principal categoría de productos agrícolas exportada por el país son las frutas y sus derivados. En las importaciones destacan los cereales, los productos de animales y las oleaginosas. Los principales destinos de las exportaciones son América del Norte, Europa y Asia Oriental, mientras América del Sur destaca como el principal origen de las importaciones. En la actualidad Chile importa casi un 50 % de los cereales y legumbres que se consumen en el país, lo cual constituye una eventual vulnerabilidad ante perturbaciones en los mercados internacionales de alimentos. La crisis del COVID-19 se perfila como un gran desafío económico y alimentario; si bien los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en Chile, al igual que en la mayor parte de Sudamérica, han progresado favorablemente en las últimas décadas al disminuir las tasas de hambre, las repercusiones sociales y económicas de la pandemia ponen en jaque estos avances.

Climate change is expected to change weather patterns in Chile significantly. Preserving the taxonomic and genetic diversity of crop wild relatives (CWR) is critical to ensure the availability of crops for future human food. However, many CWR are threatened in their natural habitats and underrepresented in gene banks. This research aimed to analyze the current and future climatic suitability under climate change of Chilean endemic CWR, the role of protected areas in their conservation, and possible conflicts of land use with agricultural production. The climatic suitability of 30 species was modeled with present and future bioclimatic variables using a species distribution modeling approach. The climatically suitable areas of all endemic CWR species analyzed are projected to change; 26 increased their suitable areas in the future and four decreased (Ribes integrifolium Phil., Dioscorea fastigiata Gay, Solanum chilense (Dunal) Reiche, Lupinus oreophilus Phil.). Specific conflict with agricultural land use is projected to occur between Valparaiso and Biobio regions, where zones not in protected areas with more than 15 CWR species intersect with those that will be more suitable to produce food crops. Careful and informed planning is required to protect the future distribution of endemic CWR in Chile, especially for species whose climatically suitable area decreases. This effort should comprise a coordinated approach that includes both in situ and ex situ conservation strategies to preserve genetic diversity.