The major intendment of this study is to investigate the relation between money supply and inflation in Bangladesh using monthly data spanning from 2010.05 to 2017.12. By utilizing the cointegration and Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM) techniques this study demonstrate that money supply does not affect the inflation in short-run and this is not true in vice-versa. In the long run, this study depicts a bi-directional causal relationship of money supply to inflation. Thus for short-run inflation in Bangladesh is not a financial incident somewhat it can boost the growth of the money supply but in the long-run inflation can significantly be influenced by the money supply. This study recommends that the monetary authority of Bangladesh can pursue the monetary policy considering the long run effect of the money supply. Contribution/ Originality: This study contributes in the existing literature which has been able to verify that money supply is not a significant element that triggers up the price level in Bangladesh economy in the short-run, and this study also documents that in the long-run the effect of money supply is not neutral.
Analysis of the nature of government expenditure constitutes a central concern in economic literature. This is because many countries of the world consistently have increased the size of government expenditure. Bangladesh has done the same practice over the last few decades. There is a need to investigate the factors which determine the size of the public spending of Bangladesh. The error correction modeling technique for the short-run dynamic equation and ordinary least square (OLS) for long-run static equation are used over the period 1973 to 2016 to this purpose. The results of the short run dynamic equation and long-run static equation showed that external debt, real GDP, urbanization, tax, and non-tax government revenue positively influence the government expenditure where dependency on foreign aid and trade openness adversely affect it. The study recommends that the government should take proper step to expand the revenue base, stimulate the economic growth and reduce the external debt, and foreign aid.
The purpose of this paper is to measure behavior of the U.S. economic growth and views the future from 2015-2035 while pretending that the financial crisis did not happen. The sample period for investigation in 1945-2015 the empirical analysis of this study employed annual secondary time series data, collected from different sources. Three influential factors of growth are the labor force, technology, and capital, and our most important finding is that growth of technology is the highest influential among them and thus special attention should be given its advancement. The growth rate of GDP is at 2.07% as of 2015, but using the first order exponential model, it will slow down to 1.38% by 2035. The findings were conclusive in that total production was made up of 57.5% technology, 28.8% labor, and 12.8% capital. Technology makes up the greatest fraction of total production and changes in labor and capital would not affect the growth rate as much as technology can and it was projected that in 20 years, the GDP level could be anywhere from $19,138.8 using the polynomial model to $34,681.8 using the first order exponential model. The longest business cycle the U.S. has experienced was from 1989-2008, under which the economy had its longest stretch of better than experience performance. Growth gradually accelerated after 1950, reached a peak in the middle of the 20th century, and has been slowing down since. The most effective way to increase the growth rate is to increase the level of technology because the diminishing returns to labor and capital decrease the growth rate of GDP. A key idea to take away from this paper is that while a model fit the current data well, it may weigh recent events to heavily, recessionary or exponential growth, the average between the most optimistic and pessimistic models may be the best bet.
The rapid spread of COVID-19 and subsequent restriction measures become a growing concern for its economic impacts as well. To address it, a study was undertaken to investigate the impacts upon the low-income people employed in the informal sectors in Bangladesh. The data of 372 respondents was collected through a structured questionnaire from the informal sectors in the cities of Dhaka and Chattogram, the most predominant hubs of the country’s informal workers. This study covered the period of the first wave of the pandemic in Bangladesh from its first detection (8 March 2020) to the onset of the second wave (February 2021). It was a little over the one year period that had been divided into four-time segments considering as before pandemic (January – March 2020), and during pandemic (1st quartile: April – July 2020; 2nd quartile: August – November 2020 and 3rd quartile: December 2020 - February 2021). In the 1st quartile during the pandemic, 65% of respondents' income revealed a sharp decline. This scenario continued in the 2nd and 3rd quartiles with the figure of 35% and 24% respectively. Thus, in each of the three quartiles during pandemic time slots, the majority of respondents' consumption, living standard, schooling, and access to health care facilities were found negatively impacted. By the continuity of time some of the respondents were able to settle them in the new socio-economic condition. Overall, these results indicated several recommendations, including extending basic assistance to these vulnerable groups.
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