In this paper we derive a model describing the dynamics of HIV-1 infection in tissue culture where the infection spreads directly from infected cells to healthy cells trough cell-to-cell contact. We assume that the infection rate between healthy and infected cells is a saturating function of cell concentration. Our analysis shows that if the basic reproduction number does not exceed unity then infected cells are cleared and the disease dies out. Otherwise, the infection is persistent with the existence of an infected equilibrium. Numerical simulations indicate that, depending on the fraction of cells surviving the incubation period, the solutions approach either an infected steady state or a periodic orbit.
In this paper we consider a nonautonomous stage-structured competitive system of n-species population growth with distributed delays which takes into account the delayed feedback in both interspecific and intraspecific interactions. We obtain, by using the method of repeated replace, sufficient conditions for permanence and extinction of the species. The global attractivity of the unique positive equilibrium is proved in the autonomous case. Our results extend previous ones obtained by Liu et al.
In this paper, we investigate the qualitative behavior of a class of fractional SEIR epidemic models with a more general incidence rate function and time delay to incorporate latent infected individuals. We first prove positivity and boundedness of solutions of the system. The basic reproduction number 0 of the model is computed using the method of next generation matrix, and we prove that if 0 < 1, the healthy equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, and when 0 > 1, the system admits a unique endemic equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable. Moreover, using a suitable Lyapunov function and some results about the theory of stability of differential equations of delayed fractional-order type, we give a complete study of global stability for both healthy and endemic steady states. The model is used to describe the COVID-19 outbreak in Algeria at its beginning in February 2020. A numerical scheme, based on Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method, is used to run the numerical simulations and shows that the number of new infected individuals will peak around late July 2020. Further, numerical simulations show that around 90% of the population in Algeria will be infected. Compared with the WHO data, our results are much more close to real data. Our model with fractional derivative and delay can then better fit the data of Algeria at the beginning of infection and before the lock and isolation measures. The model we propose is a generalization of several SEIR other models with fractional derivative and delay in literature.
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