Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y−1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.

Recent findings on large nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from permafrost peatlands have shown that tundra soils can support high N 2 O release, which is on the contrary to what was thought previously. However, field data on this topic have been very limited, and the spatial and temporal extent of the phenomenon has not been known. To address this question, we studied N 2 O dynamics in two types of subarctic permafrost peatlands, a peat plateau in Russia and three palsa mires in Finland, including also adjacent upland soils. The peatlands studied have surfaces that are uplifted by frost (palsas and peat plateaus) and partly unvegetated as a result of wind erosion and frost action. Unvegetated peat surfaces with high N 2 O emissions were found from all the studied peatlands. Very high N 2 O emissions were measured from peat circles at the Russian site (1.40 AE 0.15 g N 2 O m À2 yr À1 ). Elevated, sparsely vegetated peat mounds at the same site had significantly lower N 2 O release. The N 2 O emissions from bare palsa surfaces in Northern Finland were highly variable but reached high rates, similar to those measured from the peat circles. All the vegetated soils studied had negligible N 2 O release. At the bare peat surfaces, the large N 2 O emissions were supported by the absence of plant N uptake, the low C : N ratio of the peat, the relatively high gross N mineralization rate and favourable moisture content, together increasing availability of mineral N for N 2 O production. We hypothesize that frost heave is crucial for high N 2 O emissions, since it lifts the peat above the water table, increasing oxygen availability and making it vulnerable to the the physical processes that may remove the vegetation cover. In the future, permafrost thawing may change the distribution of wet and dry surfaces in permafrost peatlands, which will affect N 2 O emissions.

Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic might cause a greater release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. To study the effect of warming on GHG dynamics, we deployed open-top chambers in a subarctic tundra site in Northeast European Russia. We determined carbon dioxide (CO ), methane (CH ), and nitrous oxide (N O) fluxes as well as the concentration of those gases, inorganic nitrogen (N) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) along the soil profile. Studied tundra surfaces ranged from mineral to organic soils and from vegetated to unvegetated areas. As a result of air warming, the seasonal GHG budget of the vegetated tundra surfaces shifted from a GHG sink of -300 to -198 g CO -eq m to a source of 105 to 144 g CO -eq m . At bare peat surfaces, we observed increased release of all three GHGs. While the positive warming response was dominated by CO , we provide here the first in situ evidence of increasing N O emissions from tundra soils with warming. Warming promoted N O release not only from bare peat, previously identified as a strong N O source, but also from the abundant, vegetated peat surfaces that do not emit N O under present climate. At these surfaces, elevated temperatures had an adverse effect on plant growth, resulting in lower plant N uptake and, consequently, better N availability for soil microbes. Although the warming was limited to the soil surface and did not alter thaw depth, it increased concentrations of DOC, CO and CH in the soil down to the permafrost table. This can be attributed to downward DOC leaching, fueling microbial activity at depth. Taken together, our results emphasize the tight linkages between plant and soil processes, and different soil layers, which need to be taken into account when predicting the climate change feedback of the Arctic.

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH ), a greenhouse gas, and occur extensively in the northern hemisphere. Large discrepancies remain between "bottom-up" and "top-down" estimates of northern CH emissions. To explore whether these discrepancies are due to poor representation of nongrowing season CH emissions, we synthesized nongrowing season and annual CH flux measurements from temperate, boreal, and tundra wetlands and uplands. Median nongrowing season wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g/m in bogs to 5.2 g/m in marshes and were dependent on moisture, vegetation, and permafrost. Annual wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g m year in tundra bogs to 78 g m year in temperate marshes. Uplands varied from CH sinks to CH sources with a median annual flux of 0.0 ± 0.2 g m year . The measured fraction of annual CH emissions during the nongrowing season (observed: 13% to 47%) was significantly larger than that was predicted by two process-based model ensembles, especially between 40° and 60°N (modeled: 4% to 17%). Constraining the model ensembles with the measured nongrowing fraction increased total nongrowing season and annual CH emissions. Using this constraint, the modeled nongrowing season wetland CH flux from >40° north was 6.1 ± 1.5 Tg/year, three times greater than the nongrowing season emissions of the unconstrained model ensemble. The annual wetland CH flux was 37 ± 7 Tg/year from the data-constrained model ensemble, 25% larger than the unconstrained ensemble. Considering nongrowing season processes is critical for accurately estimating CH emissions from high-latitude ecosystems, and necessary for constraining the role of wetland emissions in a warming climate.

No abstract