[1] The extent to which interseismic coupling controls the slip distribution of large megathrust earthquakes is unclear, with some authors proposing that it is the primary control and others suggesting that stress changes from previous earthquakes are of first-order importance. Here, we develop a detailed stress history of the Sunda megathrust, modified by coupling, and compare the correlation between slip and stress with that of slip versus coupling. We find that the slip distributions of recent earthquakes are more consistent with the stress field than with the coupling distributions but observe that in places, the stress pattern is strongly dependent on poorly constrained values of slip in historical earthquakes. We also find that of the 13 earthquakes in our study for which we have hypocentral locations, only two appear to have nucleated in areas of negative stress, and these locations correspond to large uncertainties in the slip distribution of pre-instrumental events.

The innovation process is central to effective adaption to climate change and development challenges, but models from business and management tend to dominate innovation theory, which sits outside the adaption-development paradigm. This paper presents an alternative conceptual framework to visualize innovations as pathways across the adaption-development landscape for humanitarian and development goals. This useful tool can reveal, map and coordinate innovation strategy. To demonstrate and validate this approach, we analyze a case study of innovation in aftershock forecasting for humanitarian decision-making and show that the most effective strategy is for multiple innovation strands and hubs to move concurrently and cumulatively towards transformative humanitarian and development goals.

No abstract

Deep-rooted socio-ecological and technical systems, values and lifestyles, ‘locked in’ by vested interests and flows of power, underpin the interconnected problems of climate change, hazard vulnerability and poverty. A ‘shallow’ approach to co-production, with its focus on knowledge exchange and shared learning between individuals, struggles to gain the ‘purchase’ needed to transform these material structures. In this paper we demonstrate that non-representational theory is a good starting point for an alternative ‘deep’ approach to disaster risk management co-production. We review key aspects of non-representational theory and their application to disaster risk management and build a novel hybrid conceptual framework. We use this to analyse a case study of disaster risk management co-production (an aftershock forecasting approach used by humanitarian agencies during the Nepal 2015 earthquake), how social change occurred in this instance, and the role disaster risk management co-production played. We emphasise how change was the consequence of unexpected shifts in assemblages of human, non-human, virtual and real actors. These created ‘events’ that were opportunities for change that were realised with fidelity. Using this analysis, we develop an alternative deep approach to co-production, as ‘a practical means of going on’, and finish with five precepts to guide transformative disaster risk management based on the concept of multi-actor change cascades.

No abstract