Aims  The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70 years in four geographical risk regions. Methods and results  Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for estimating CVD risk (CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) were derived in individuals aged over 65 without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD from the Cohort of Norway (28 503 individuals, 10 089 CVD events). Models included age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Four geographical risk regions were defined based on country-specific CVD mortality rates. Models were recalibrated to each region using region-specific estimated CVD incidence rates and risk factor distributions. For external validation, we analysed data from 6 additional study populations {338 615 individuals, 33 219 CVD validation cohorts, C-indices ranged between 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61–0.65] and 0.67 (0.64–0.69)}. Regional calibration of expected-vs.-observed risks was satisfactory. For given risk factor profiles, there was substantial variation across the four risk regions in the estimated 10-year CVD event risk. Conclusions  The competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-OP model was derived, recalibrated, and externally validated to estimate 5- and 10-year CVD risk in older adults (aged 70 years or older) in four geographical risk regions. These models can be used for communicating the risk of CVD and potential benefit from risk factor treatment and may facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in CVD risk management in older persons.

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BACKGROUND: There are several lines of evidence pointing to fetal and other early origins of diseases of the aging brain, but there are no data directly addressing the hypotheses in an older population. We investigated the association of fetal size to late-age measures of brain structure and function in a large cohort of older men and women and explored the modifying effect of education on these associations. METHODS: Within the AGES (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility)-Reykjavik population-based cohort (born between 1907 and 1935), archived birth records were abstracted for 1254 men and women who ∼75 years later underwent an examination that included brain MRI and extensive cognitive assessment. RESULTS: Adjustment for intracranial volume, demographic and medical history characteristics, and lower Ponderal index at birth (per kg/m3), an indicator of third-trimester fetal wasting, was significantly associated with smaller volumes of total brain and white matter; βs (95% confidence intervals) were −1.0 (−1.9 to −0.0) and −0.5 (−1.0 to −0.0) mL. Furthermore, lower Ponderal index was associated with slower processing speed and reduced executive functioning but only in those with low education (β [95% confidence interval]: −0.136 [−0.235 to −0.036] and −0.077 [−0.153 to −0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: This first study of its kind provides clinical measures suggesting that smaller birth size, as an indicator of a suboptimal intrauterine environment, is associated with late-life alterations in brain tissue volume and function. In addition, it shows that the effects of a suboptimal intrauterine environment on late-life cognitive function were present only in those with lower educational levels.

IntroductionSeveral studies have reported alterations in gut microbiota composition of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients. However, the observed differences are not consistent across studies. We aimed to investigate associations between gut microbiota composition and AD biomarkers using machine learning models in patients with AD dementia, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and subjective cognitive decline (SCD).Materials and MethodsWe included 170 patients from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort, comprising 33 with AD dementia (66 ± 8 years, 46%F, mini-mental state examination (MMSE) 21[19-24]), 21 with MCI (64 ± 8 years, 43%F, MMSE 27[25-29]) and 116 with SCD (62 ± 8 years, 44%F, MMSE 29[28-30]). Fecal samples were collected and gut microbiome composition was determined using 16S rRNA sequencing. Biomarkers of AD included cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) amyloid-beta 1-42 (amyloid) and phosphorylated tau (p-tau), and MRI visual scores (medial temporal atrophy, global cortical atrophy, white matter hyperintensities). Associations between gut microbiota composition and dichotomized AD biomarkers were assessed with machine learning classification models. The two models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were selected for logistic regression, to assess associations between the 20 best predicting microbes and the outcome measures from these machine learning models while adjusting for age, sex, BMI, diabetes, medication use, and MMSE.ResultsThe machine learning prediction for amyloid and p-tau from microbiota composition performed best with AUCs of 0.64 and 0.63. Highest ranked microbes included several short chain fatty acid (SCFA)-producing species. Higher abundance of [Clostridium] leptum and lower abundance of [Eubacterium] ventriosum group spp., Lachnospiraceae spp., Marvinbryantia spp., Monoglobus spp., [Ruminococcus] torques group spp., Roseburia hominis, and Christensenellaceae R-7 spp., was associated with higher odds of amyloid positivity. We found associations between lower abundance of Lachnospiraceae spp., Lachnoclostridium spp., Roseburia hominis and Bilophila wadsworthia and higher odds of positive p-tau status.ConclusionsGut microbiota composition was associated with amyloid and p-tau status. We extend on recent studies that observed associations between SCFA levels and AD CSF biomarkers by showing that lower abundances of SCFA-producing microbes were associated with higher odds of positive amyloid and p-tau status.