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First-trimester screening for GDM can be provided by a combination of maternal characteristics and biomarkers.

OBJECTIVEPredictors of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have been widely studied, but few studies have considered multiple measures. Our objective was to integrate several potential GDM predictors with consideration to both simple and novel measures and to determine the extent to which GDM can be predicted in the first trimester.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSWe identified first-trimester maternal samples from 124 women who developed GDM and 248 control subjects who did not. We gathered data on age, BMI, parity, race, smoking, prior GDM, family history of diabetes, and blood pressure. Using retrieved samples, we measured routine (lipids, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and γ-glutamyltransferase) and novel (adiponectin, E-selectin, and tissue plasminogen activator [t-PA]) parameters. We determined independent predictors from stepwise regression analyses, calculated areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROC), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) for relevant models.RESULTSCompared with control subjects, women who subsequently developed GDM were older, had higher BMIs, were more likely to be of Asian origin, had a history of GDM or family history of type 2 diabetes, and had higher systolic blood pressure (P < 0.05 for all). With regard biochemical measures, stepwise analyses identified only elevated t-PA and low HDL cholesterol levels as significant (P ≤ 0.015) independent predictors of GDM beyond simple non–laboratory-based maternal measures. Their inclusion improved the AUC-ROC from 0.824 to 0.861 and IDI by 0.052 (0.017–0.115).CONCLUSIONSGDM can be usefully estimated from a mix of simple questions with potential for further improvement by specific blood measures (lipids and t-PA).

BackgroundBirth weight, a marker of the intrauterine environment, has been extensively studied in epidemiological research in relation to subsequent health and disease. Although numerous meta-analyses have been published examining the association between birth weight and subsequent health-related outcomes, the epidemiological credibility of these associations has not been thoroughly assessed. The objective of this study is to map the diverse health outcomes associated with birth weight and evaluate the credibility and presence of biases in the reported associations.MethodsAn umbrella review was performed to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies investigating the association between birth weight and subsequent health outcomes and traits. For each association, we estimated the summary effect size by random-effects and fixed-effects models, the 95 % confidence interval, and the 95 % prediction interval. We also assessed the between-study heterogeneity, evidence for small-study effects and excess significance bias. We further applied standardized methodological criteria to evaluate the epidemiological credibility of the statistically significant associations.ResultsThirty-nine articles including 78 associations between birth weight and diverse outcomes met the eligibility criteria. A wide range of health outcomes has been studied, ranging from anthropometry and metabolic diseases, cardiovascular diseases and cardiovascular risk factors, various cancers, respiratory diseases and allergies, musculoskeletal traits and perinatal outcomes. Forty-seven of 78 associations presented a nominally significant summary effect and 21 associations remained statistically significant at P < 1 × 10−6. Thirty associations presented large or very large between-study heterogeneity. Evidence for small-study effects and excess significance bias was present in 13 and 16 associations, respectively. One association with low birth weight (increased risk for all-cause mortality), two dose-response associations with birth weight (higher bone mineral concentration in hip and lower risk for mortality from cardiovascular diseases per 1 kg increase in birth weight) and one association with small-for-gestational age infants with normal birth weight (increased risk for childhood stunting) presented convincing evidence. Eleven additional associations had highly suggestive evidence.ConclusionsThe range of outcomes convincingly associated with birth weight might be narrower than originally described under the “fetal origin hypothesis” of disease. There is weak evidence that birth weight constitutes an effective public health intervention marker.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0692-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.