No abstract

Background Prescribing of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) declined drastically after publication of the Women's Health Initiative's (WHI) findings in 2002, but studies on longer‐term trends and details of use are scarce. Methods We used the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database (GePaRD) containing health insurance claims data from ~25 million persons. Using data from 2004–2016, we conducted cross‐sectional analyses to determine the prevalence of MHT use overall and by type and route of administration in women aged 45–75. In longitudinal analyses, we assessed MHT use over 5 years and compared the patterns between different time periods. Results From 2004 to 2016, prevalence of systemic MHT prescriptions decreased by >60% in women aged 55–65 and by >50% in women aged 50 and 70 years old. Prevalence declined for most types and routes of administration at all ages (−16% to −79%) with some exceptions, for example, local MHT (vaginal estrogen). Among 50‐year‐old women in 2012, 6% were already prescribed systemic MHT at age 49 and of the remaining women, 16% were newly prescribed systemic MHT before age 55. At all ages, the cumulative dose of systemic MHT prescribed over 5 years was lower in the period 2012–2016 compared to 2005–2009 (−6% to −46%). Conclusions For most types of MHT and all age groups, prevalence declined considerably between 2004 and 2016 in Germany. The cumulative dose per MHT user also decreased, suggesting a trend towards a shorter duration of use.

Purpose In older adults, fractures are associated with mortality, disability, loss of independence and high costs. Knowledge on their predictors can help to identify persons at high risk who may benefit from measures to prevent fractures. We aimed to assess the potential of German claims data to predict fractures in older adults. Patients and Methods Using the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database (short GePaRD; claims data from ~20% of the German population), we included persons aged ≥65 years with at least one year of continuous insurance coverage and no fractures prior to January 1, 2017 (baseline). We randomly divided the study population into a training (80%) and a test sample (20%) and used logistic regression and random forest models to predict the risk of fractures within one year after baseline based on different combinations of potential predictors. Results Among 2,997,872 persons (56% female), the incidence per 10,000 person years of any fracture in women increased from 133 in age group 65–74 years (men: 71) to 583 in age group 85+ (men: 332). The maximum predictive performance as measured by the area under the curve (AUC) across models was 0.63 in men and 0.60 in women and was achieved by combining information on drugs and morbidities. AUCs were lowest in age group 85+. Conclusion Our study showed that the performance of models using German claims data to predict the risk of fractures in older adults is moderate. Given that the models used data readily available to health insurance providers in Germany, it may still be worthwhile to explore the cost–benefit ratio of interventions aiming to reduce the risk of fractures based on such prediction models in certain risk groups.

Purpose The cumulative effect of medication inhibiting acetylcholine activity—also known as anticholinergic burden (AB)—can lead to functional and cognitive decline, falls, and death. Given that studies on the population prevalence of AB are rare, we aimed to describe it in a large and unselected population sample. Methods Using the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database (GePaRD) with claims data from ~20% of the German population we analyzed outpatient drug dispensations in 2016. Based on the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale, we classified persons into four categories and determined the cumulative AB as continuous variable. Results Among 16,470,946 persons (54% female), the prevalence of clinically relevant AB (ACB≥3) was 10% (women) and 7% (men). Below age 40 it was highest in persons ≤18 years (6% both sexes). At older ages (50–59 vs. 90–99 years), prevalence of ACB≥3 increased from 7% to 26% (men) and from 10% to 32% (women). Medication classes contributing to the cumulative AB differed by age: antihistamines, antibiotics, glucocorticoids (≤19 years), antidepressants (20–49 years), antidepressants, cardiovascular medication, antidiabetics (50–64 years), and additionally medication for urinary incontinence/overactive bladder (≥65 years). Medication dispensed by general physicians contributed most to the cumulative AB. Conclusion Although a clinically relevant AB is particularly common in older persons, prevalence in younger age groups was up to 7%. Given the risks associated with AB in older persons, targeted interventions at the prescriber level are needed. Furthermore, risks associated with AB in younger persons should be explored.

Purpose: Epidemiological and health care research frequently rely on diagnoses from routine care, but the intra-individual stability of diagnoses of Alzheimer's disease (AD), vascular dementia (VD) or other forms of dementia (oD) in patients over time is understudied. More data on the diagnostic stability is needed to appraise epidemiological findings from such studies.Methods: Using health claims data of the years 2004-2016 from the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database, 160 273 patients aged ≥50 with incident dementia were identified and followed for 4 years. According to the incident ICD-10 codes patients were assigned to the categories AD, VD or oD. Changes between categories during follow-up were calculated.Results: Overall, 18.8% had incident AD (VD: 21.5%, oD: 59.7%). Fifteen thousand eight hundred forty-two patients had only one dementia diagnosis during 4 years (AD: 7.4%, VD: 12.4%, oD: 9.8%). Among those with more than one diagnosis, the incident diagnosis matched the last diagnosis in 65.1% (AD), 53.9% (VD) and 73.8% (oD) of patients. Changes in the diagnostic category were higher in patients with AD (mean: 5.1) than in patients with VD (3.6) or oD (3.3). Patients with stable AD diagnoses during the observation period were younger (median: 76 vs. 79 years) and had less inpatient treatment days (median: 14 days) than patients with changes from an AD diagnosis to another category or from another category to AD (27 days).Conclusions: While health claims data are feasible for estimating the incidence of dementia in general, the substantial number of changes in dementia diagnoses during the course of the disease warrant caution on the interpretation of epidemiological data on specific dementia types.