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SUMMARY The use of radar Doppler velocimetry for the observation of volcanic activity is new. We used this method to continuously observe the activity of one vent of Stromboli volcano, Italy, from the end of 2000 April until early May. During this period we recorded 702 eruptions, 132 of which occurred before a strong rain storm passed over the island on April 29. In order to interpret the recorded Doppler data we developed a program that simulates different strombolian eruption scenarios, for which we then calculate the theoretical Doppler spectra. Comparing our theoretical data with the observed data we are able to show that most of the eruptions are nearly vertical, although we did observe only one component of the eruption vector with our Doppler radar. One of the most interesting features of the data set is a significant change in eruptive behaviour that correlates with the occurrence of the rain storm: we find that on average the eruption duration increased by a factor of 2, eruptive velocities were much higher and indirect evidence indicates that the average particle diameter of the erupted material decreased. This change may have several causes, but the coincidence with the rain storm may be evidence of magma–water interaction and feedback on the volcanic activity. If the fluid source (rain) changing the eruptive style is at the surface and in near‐surface layers then the main control on final eruption dynamics at Stromboli volcano must also be in rather shallow regions.

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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) quantifies the probability of exceeding a specified inundation intensity at a given location within a given time interval. PTHA provides scientific guidance for tsunami risk analysis and risk management, including coastal planning and early warning. Explicit computation of site-specific PTHA, with an adequate discretization of source scenarios combined with high-resolution numerical inundation modelling, has been out of reach with existing models and computing capabilities, with tens to hundreds of thousands of moderately intensive numerical simulations being required for exhaustive uncertainty quantification. In recent years, more efficient GPU-based High-Performance Computing (HPC) facilities, together with efficient GPU-optimized shallow water type models for simulating tsunami inundation, have now made local long-term hazard assessment feasible. A workflow has been developed with three main stages: 1) Site-specific source selection and discretization, 2) Efficient numerical inundation simulation for each scenario using the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA numerical tsunami propagation and inundation model using a system of nested topo-bathymetric grids, and 3) Hazard aggregation. We apply this site-specific PTHA workflow here to Catania, Sicily, for tsunamigenic earthquake sources in the Mediterranean. We illustrate the workflows of the PTHA as implemented for High-Performance Computing applications, including preliminary simulations carried out on intermediate scale GPU clusters. We show how the local hazard analysis conducted here produces a more fine-grained assessment than is possible with a regional assessment. However, the new local PTHA indicates somewhat lower probabilities of exceedance for higher maximum inundation heights than the available regional PTHA. The local hazard analysis takes into account small-scale tsunami inundation features and non-linearity which the regional-scale assessment does not incorporate. However, the deterministic inundation simulations neglect some uncertainties stemming from the simplified source treatment and tsunami modelling that are embedded in the regional stochastic approach to inundation height estimation. Further research is needed to quantify the uncertainty associated with numerical inundation modelling and to properly propagate it onto the hazard results, to fully exploit the potential of site-specific hazard assessment based on massive simulations.

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