No abstract

No abstract

The evaluation and usefulness of lightning prediction for Indian subcontinent are demonstrated. Implementation of the lightning parameterizations based on storm parameters, in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), with different microphysics schemes are carried out. With the availability of observed lightning measurements over Maharashtra from the lightning detection network (LDN), lightning cases have been identified during pre-monsoon season of 2016–2018. Lightning parameterization based on cloud top height defined by reflectivity threshold factor of 20 dBZ is chosen. Initial analysis is carried out for sixteen lightning events with four microphysical schemes for the usefulness in lightning prediction. Objective analysis is carried out and quantitative model performance (skill scores) is assessed based on observed data. The skills are evaluated for 10 and 50 km square box from the 1 km domain. There is good POD of 0.86, 0.82, 0.85, 0.84 and false alarm ratio (FAR) of 0.28, 0.25, 0.29, 0.26 from WSM6, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6 respectively. There is an overestimation in lightning flash with a spatial and temporal shift. The fractional skill score is evaluated as a function of spatial scale with neighbourhoods from 25 to 250 km. These high skill scores and high degree of correlation between observations and model simulation gives confidence to use the system for real-time operational forecast over India. The skill for 2019 and 2020 pre-monsoon are calculated to address the predictability of operational lightning prediction over India.

No abstract