BackgroundObservational studies have reported multiple risk factors for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Some are well established, like tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, obesity and type 2 diabetes, whereas some others are putative, such as allergy and dietary factors. Identifying causal risk factors can help establishing those that can be targeted to contribute to prevent PDAC.ObjectiveWe sought to investigate the possible causal effects of established and putative factors on PDAC risk.MethodsWe conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study using publicly available data for genetic variants associated with the factors of interest, and summary genetic data from genome-wide association studies of the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) and the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4), including in total 8769 cases and 7055 controls. Causality was assessed using inverse-variance weighted, MR-Egger regression and weighted median methods, complemented with sensitivity and radial MR analyses.ResultsWe found evidence for a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on PDAC risk (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.71, p=8.43×10−5). Fasting insulin (OR 2.84, 95% CI 1.23 to 6.56, p=0.01), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.32, p=0.03) and type 2 diabetes (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.17, p=0.02) were also causally associated with PDAC risk. BMI showed both direct and fasting insulin-mediated causal effects.ConclusionWe found strong evidence that BMI is causally associated with PDAC risk, providing support that obesity management may be a potential prevention strategy for reducing pancreatic cancer risk while fasting insulin and type 2 diabetes showed a suggestive association that should be further investigated.

BackgroundMost cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are asymptomatic in early stages, and the disease is typically diagnosed in advanced phases, resulting in very high mortality. Tools to identify individuals at high risk of developing PDAC would be useful to improve chances of early detection.ObjectiveWe generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) for PDAC risk prediction, combining the effect of known risk SNPs, and carried out an exploratory analysis of a multifactorial score.MethodsWe tested the associations of the individual known risk SNPs on up to 2851 PDAC cases and 4810 controls of European origin from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. Thirty risk SNPs were included in a PRS, which was computed on the subset of subjects that had 100% call rate, consisting of 839 cases and 2040 controls in PANDoRA and 6420 cases and 4889 controls from the previously published Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium I–III and Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium genome-wide association studies. Additional exploratory multifactorial scores were constructed by complementing the genetic score with smoking and diabetes.ResultsThe scores were associated with increased PDAC risk and reached high statistical significance (OR=2.70, 95% CI 1.99 to 3.68, p=2.54×10−10 highest vs lowest quintile of the weighted PRS, and OR=14.37, 95% CI 5.57 to 37.09, p=3.64×10−8, highest vs lowest quintile of the weighted multifactorial score).ConclusionWe found a highly significant association between a PRS and PDAC risk, which explains more than individual SNPs and is a step forward in the direction of the construction of a tool for risk stratification in the population.

The CDKN2A (p16) gene plays a key role in pancreatic cancer etiology. It is one of the most commonly somatically mutated genes in pancreatic cancer, rare germline mutations have been found to be associated with increased risk of developing familiar pancreatic cancer and CDKN2A promoter hyper-methylation has been suggested to play a critical role both in pancreatic cancer onset and prognosis. In addition several unrelated SNPs in the 9p21.3 region, that includes the CDNK2A, CDNK2B and the CDNK2B-AS1 genes, are associated with the development of cancer in various organs. However, association between the common genetic variability in this region and pancreatic cancer risk is not clearly understood. We sought to fill this gap in a case-control study genotyping 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,857 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients and 6,111 controls in the context of the Pancreatic Disease Research (PANDoRA) consortium. We found that the A allele of the rs3217992 SNP was associated with an increased pancreatic cancer risk (ORhet=1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.27, p=0.026, ORhom=1.30, 95% CI 1.12-1.51, p=0.00049). This pleiotropic variant is reported to be a mir-SNP that, by changing the binding site of one or more miRNAs, could influence the normal cell cycle progression and in turn increase PDAC risk. In conclusion, we observed a novel association in a pleiotropic region that has been found to be of key relevance in the susceptibility to various types of cancer and diabetes suggesting that the CDKN2A/B locus could represent a genetic link between diabetes and pancreatic cancer risk.