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Background Under the one-child policy of birth control, total fertility rates (TFRs) declined rapidly among women in China. TFRs dropped from 2.29 in 1990 to 1.18 in 2010 and to 1.05 in 2015. However, little is known about the evolution of fertility patterns in China during 1990–2015. Methods We used population data from 1990 to 2015 and applied age–period–cohort (APC) models to examine temporal changes and used regression models to analyze the effect of education on fertility across periods and cohorts in China. Results Age effects assume an inverted U-shaped curve, which increase and then decline across ages, with a peak value in age groups 20–24 or 25–29. Period effects show a U-shaped curve, which first decline and then increase. Cohort effects show an inverted U-shaped plus V-shaped curve, which first increase, then decline and rebound with different age effects and period effects. The APC effect curves of all-order births are similar to those of first birth, but with different magnitudes. Conclusions We revealed the evolutionary trends in fertility patterns among Chinese women from 1990 to 2015. The one-child policy exerted a crowding out effect on education. Even if the well-educated women had an intense fertility intention, the fertility policy offset their desire for more children.

The impact of women’s education on fertility is of interest to researchers, particularly in China. However, few studies have provided well-founded assessments of how women’s education, workforce experience, and birth control policy jointly affect fertility in China. This study, conducted in Guangdong Province, aimed to analyze how these three factors influenced the timing of births and affected women at different stages of their reproductive lives. We used census data for Guangdong Province (1990, 2000, and 2010) to make cross-sectional age-specific comparisons to examine the effects of women’s education and workforce participation on fertility outcomes under China’s One Child Policy. We found that: (1) under circumstances of low fertility, women tend to have more children with greater educational attainment; (2) the impact of women’s education and workforce experience on fertility varied across age groups, with the effect of education showing a bimodal curve peaking at 25–29 years and 40–44 years, and a workforce experience effect at 25–34 years; and (3) the fertility time-squeeze effect by educational attainment was relatively small, the effect by workforce participation was larger, and the most important effect was birth control policy and its implementation. These results suggest that educational attainment and workforce experience have a substantial effect on women’s fertility, and a tradeoff between them is unavoidable. China’s 2015 birth control policy adjustment should be considered in planning future services to accommodate anticipated increases in the birth rate. More attention should be directed to the causal mechanism (women’s preference and selection effects) behind the factors analyzed in this study.