The data contradicted national studies reporting primary hypertension as the main cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). A high rate of unknown causes and categorization bias were observed mainly in relation to primary hypertension as a cause of CKD, which affects the overall prevalence of causes of ESRD in patients on dialysis.

Background Lupus nephritis (LN) is a major source of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), with 10–25% of patients progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Objective This study aims to elucidate the predictive capabilities of 24-h proteinuria (24PTU) and serum creatinine (sCr) after 12 months of treatment with respect to long-term renal outcomes in LN in a single-center cohort of LN patients. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 214 patients diagnosed with LN followed in our center. Values of 24PTU and sCr were assessed at baseline and after 3, 6 and 12 months, and after 5 years and/or the last evaluation. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 3 months or longer. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) was defined as the need for permanent dialysis. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) were used to test the best cut-off value of 24PTU and sCr at 12 months who predict bad long-term renal outcomes.  Results The mean follow-up period was 11.2 ± 7.2 years. The best cut-off values for 24PTU and sCr as predictor of CKD were, respectively, 0.9 g/24 h and 0.9 mg/dL. ROC curve for 24PTU had a slightly lower performance than ROC curve for sCr as predictor for CKD (PTU AUC = 0.68; sCr AUC = 0.70), but sensitivity and specificity were better for 24PTU (24PTU: sensitivity = 63.5%, specificity = 71.2%; sCr: sensitivity = 54.8%, specificity = 75.3%). When the outcome was ESRD the best cut-off points were 0.9 g/24hs and 1.3 mg/dL for 24PTU and sCr, respectively, and the curve performance was better for 24PTU (PTU AUC = 0.72; sCr AUC = 0.61). Conclusions In this ethnically diverse population with LN followed for a long time (> 10 years), levels of 24PTU > 0.9/day at 12 months was a good predictor of bad long-term renal outcome. The serum creatinine > 0.9 mg/dL and > 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months were also good predictors of CKD and ESRD, respectively. Patients with 24PTU < 0.9 g/day and sCr < 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months are not likely to develop ESRD because of the high negative predictive values (NPV) (93.2% and 82%). 24PTU and sCr are relevant as components for a treat-to-target strategy for LN treatment, since their high NPV corroborates their importance as good predictors of long-term renal outcome.

Background: Lupus Nephritis (LN) occurs in approximately half of all patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) and it is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with SLE. Factors associated with poor renal outcome vary among studies, and researches coming from Brazil are scarce. Objectives: To identify the prognostic factors associated to the development of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) and End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) in LN patients followed in a tertiary hospital. Design and Settings: We conducted a retrospective cohort study set in a tertiary hospital in Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil. Methods: We compiled a total of 214 LN patients diagnosed between 1983 and 2015. Data was collected from medical records and further analyzed using logistic regression. Results: LN prevalence was 53.9%. The cohort had a mean follow-up of 11.2 years (SD ± 7.2 years). At the end of follow-up, 93 of 197 patients (47.2%) had CKD, and 49 of 191 (25.6%) were on regular dialysis. The main factors associated for developing CKD after logistic regression analysis were the following predictors: hypertension (HR 2.80; 95% CI 1.30-6.01; p = 0.008), time between diagnosis of SLE and diagnosis of LN (HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.97-0.99; p = 0.009) and discontinuation of medications (HR 2.41; 95% CI 1.08-5.37; p = 0.03). Conclusion: Hypertension, discontinuation of medications, and time between diagnosis of SLE and diagnosis of LN are independent variables associated with the development of CKD and ESDR in our study.

Background: Lupus Nephritis (LN) progression to Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) and End-Stage-Renal-Disease (ESRD) represents one of the most dreaded complications of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), directly impacting quality of life and overall survival in affected patients. Identifying LN patients at high risk for poor renal outcome could lead to individualized management and treatment strategies regarding this population. We hypothesized that 24-hour urine proteinuria (PTU) after 12 months of treatment could act as a predictor of poor renal outcome in LN patients Methods: two hundred and fourteen patients who were diagnosed with LN and were followed up for more than 10 years in our center were enrolled retrospectively. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) were used to test the best cut-off value of PTU who predict bad long-term renal outcome. Results: the statistical difference was observed from 12 months when the outcome was ESRD, with a tendency from 6 months (p=0.06). Proteinuria > 0.9g/day at 12 months was the best predictor of ESRD, with the highest AUC (0.72). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 0.83, 0.65, 0.40, and 0.93, respectively. In the first year of LN treatment the serum creatinine was statistically different in any time for CKD (chronic kidney disease), but only at baseline for ESRD. Conclusions: In a population with more severe LN followed for a long time (>10 years), the cut-off point of PTU > 0.9/day is the best that predict progression to ESRD. The high negative predictive value emphasizes the need for a 1-year PTU-based LN treat to target treatment as a predictor of long-term renal outcome.

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