This study is devoted to presentation of the concept of risk, and the possibility of applying mathematical methods in supporting decision making in the energy sector to promote sustainable energy development. The problem with risk assessment in the energy sector arises mainly due to the difficulty of expressing risk in numerical terms. To avoid risk, it is necessary to set the criteria and objectives of measurement before making decisions in the energy sector. The aim of this study is to try to fill in this gap by means of comparing decisions under risk conditions within models supporting energy decisions. The authors’ focus is on the problem of risk in supporting decision making towards sustainable energy sector development, which is the main target of the European Union (EU) energy policies. Without the ability to determine the probability of occurrence of certain phenomena and their inclusion into the model, it is not possible to determine how well the solutions resulting from the models are accurate, and what is the probability of their implementation under specific conditions linked to renewable energy development.

This paper focuses on the analysis of the EU carbon trading scheme and its impacts on regional power system development and penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). The aim of the article is to analyze the forecasts of carbon dioxide (EUA) prices for the years 2019–2030 and to apply the results of this forecast in regional power system planning. The data employed in this paper come from many sources, including empirical data of the selected analytical companies, such as Thomson Reuters among others. The current low prices for carbon dioxide emission rights do not encourage the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, in particular carbon dioxide, and do not have a significant impact on the penetration of renewables. This paper presents the results of two scenarios (for 2021 and 2030) developed after the analysis of the EUA price impact on penetration of renewable energy sources in West-Pomeranian region assuming different electricity production and the EUA price forecasts. The results of two regional energy development scenarios run for 2021 and 2030 indicate changes in the structure of renewables in West-Pomeranian region. The results also show that the increase of EUA price has a significant impact on the increase of costs for power production and increase of unit cost of the installed 1GWh. In addition, the forecasted EUA price in 2030 is 3% lower as compared with 2021, which has its impact on the increased share of electricity produced by co-firing biomass with other fossil—from 42% to 68% in the electricity generation structure of West-Pomeranian region.

This article substantiates the need to find and implement innovative tools to improve the efficiency of the domestic system for energy sector control. The authors determined that energy policy renewal should consider Ukraine’s commitments to transition to a carbon-neutral economy. The systematization of scientific achievements shows that one of the priority tasks is to minimize the gaps in the energy efficiency of the national economy. It is established that, despite the significant scientific achievements in this area, the scientific community has not adopted a single approach to assessing energy efficiency yet. The purpose of this article is to assess the energy efficiency gaps in the national economy, in order to identify their peak values and the factors causing them, and appropriate mechanisms to minimize them. The energy efficiency gaps are assessed using frontal analysis and Shepard’s energy distance function. Analytical data from the World Bank, the Swiss Institute of Economics, and the International Energy Agency form the information base. The study applied software package Stata 14 for calculation the energy efficiency gaps for Ukraine for 2002–2019. The study applied the Shepard’s function translogarithmic, stochastic frontier analysis for the assessment of energy efficiency gaps. According to the study results, the average level of energy efficiency gaps is 0.12, and their values became the largest in 2009 and 2015. First of all, this is due to the impact of the global financial crisis and the escalation of military–political conflicts. The growing dynamics of the energy efficiency gaps level is due to the excess of the negative effect of increasing exports of primary energy resources and inefficient technologies for their processing over the positive impact of energy-efficient innovation imports. In this case, the government should provide a proactive strategy for creating a positive investment climate, in order to attract additional financial resources for extending green innovations and popularizing the green style and cultivate the energy safety behavior in society.

The Polish economy is facing a huge challenge regarding the future of energy in Poland. The current energy system is very inefficient, it consumes huge resources that, like countries with high energy efficiency, could be allocated to the development of low-carbon and renewable energy networks. At the moment, the Polish energy sector, related to the coal monoculture, lacks electricity and the entire transmission system is obsolete. The solution may be distributed energy, which can ultimately satisfy energy supplies in less urbanized areas and in rural areas, while guaranteeing the sustainable development of these areas. In order to take up the challenge of better understanding and explaining such a complex reality, it was decided that the research framework of this article will be distributed energy in the region. The aim of the article is to ensure energy security in the conditions of innovative, ecological and open to competition regional energy using local energy resources. Currently, it is believed that distributed energy can be an effective solution to the problem of conventional energy operation.

There are continuous research and practical interest to combine different renewable sources within one Smart Grid network. The paper aims to estimate the influence of key economic and social drivers of renewable energy and Smart Grid promotion in OECD member countries. The random effect of the generalized least squares method was used to estimate the empirical model based on the World Bank, OECD, Heritage Foundation, and World Energy Council datasets for a panel of 36 OECD counties. For the empirical estimation, the dependent variables considered are energy renewable electricity output and energy trilemma index, taken as two proxies for Smart Grid development. The results suggest that an increase in GDP p. c. in national economies by 10,000 USD leads on average to a 3.9% decrease in renewable electricity output during 2001–2015. The richer the society, the less renewable energy sources were used for power generation in a group of OECD countries. The last is also supported by the fact that gross fixed capital formation treated as a percentage value of GDP is negatively correlated with structural changes in renewable energy output. The empirical conclusion is that during the study period, OECD countries were mainly oriented to economic growth, which was achieved by consuming non-renewable energy resources, and limited attention was paid to sustainability and Millennium Development Goals. The paper provides policy recommendations for Smart Grid development and points in the future research within OECD countries. AcknowledgmentsComments from the Editor and anonymous referees have been gratefully acknowledged. Leonid Melnyk gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (0118U003578). Oleksandra Kubatko gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (0119U100766) and National Research Foundation of Ukraine (2020.01/0135).