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; and the members of the UK-PBC Consortium*The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-so-called "treatment response"-strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). Conclusions: The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. (HEPATOLOGY 2016;63:930-950) SEE EDITORIAL ON PAGE 697 P rimary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease in which autoimmune destruction of the intrahepatic bile ducts results in cholestasis and progressive fibrosis.(1) Biliary injury may eventually lead to cirrhosis and liver failure-but the rate of disease progression is variable.(2) Across the spectrum, some patients with PBC progress to end-stage liver disease (ESLD) within a few years of diagnosis; some develop cirrhosis that remains well compensated; others (perhaps the majority) do not even develop cirrhosis. In PBC, as in other conditions, accurate prognostication enables management of the disease to be tailored to the patient. This is the basis of precision medicine-and it has clear benefits: patients at higherAbbreviations: AIH, autoimmune hepatitis; ALP, alkaline phosphatase; ALP12, alkaline phosphatase after 12 months of UDCA; AMA, anti-mitochondrial antibody; ANA, anti-nuclear antibodies; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; ALT12, ALT after 12 months of UDCA; AST, aspartate transaminase; AST12, AST after 12 months of UDCA; AUC, area under receiver operating characteristic curve; BIL, bilirubin; BIL12, bilirubin after 12 months of UDCA; CI, confidence interval; CRFs, case record forms; EASL, European Association for the Study of Liver; ESLD, end-stag...

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery datasets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5×10−8) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signaling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) represent the three major autoimmune liver diseases (AILD). PBC, PSC, and AIH are all complex disorders in that they result from the effects of multiple genes in combination with as yet unidentified environmental factors. Recent genome-wide association studies have identified numerous risk loci for PBC and PSC that host genes involved in innate or acquired immune responses. These loci may provide a clue as to the immune-based pathogenesis of AILD. Moreover, many significant risk loci for PBC and PSC are also risk loci for other autoimmune disorders, such type I diabetes, multiple sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis, suggesting a shared genetic basis and possibly similar molecular pathways for diverse autoimmune conditions. There is no curative treatment for all three disorders, and a significant number of patients eventually progress to end-stage liver disease requiring liver transplantation (LT). LT in this context has a favourable overall outcome with current patient and graft survival exceeding 80% at 5years. Indications are as for other chronic liver disease although recent data suggest that while lethargy improves after transplantation, the effect is modest and variable so lethargy alone is not an indication. In contrast, pruritus rapidly responds. Cholangiocarcinoma, except under rigorous selection criteria, excludes LT because of the high risk of recurrence. All three conditions may recur after transplantation and are associated with a greater risk of both acute cellular and chronic ductopenic rejection. It is possible that a crosstalk between alloimmune and autoimmune response perpetuate each other. An immunological response toward self- or allo-antigens is well recognised after LT in patients transplanted for non-autoimmune indications and sometimes termed "de novo autoimmune hepatitis". Whether this is part of the spectrum of rejection or an autoimmune process is not clear. In this manuscript, we review novel findings about disease processes and mechanisms that lead to autoimmunity in the liver and their possible involvement in the immune response vs. the graft after LT.