Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.

Western United States wildfire increases have been generally attributed to warming temperatures, either through effects on winter snowpack or summer evaporation. However, near-surface air temperature and evaporative demand are strongly influenced by moisture availability and these interactions and their role in regulating fire activity have never been fully explored. Here we show that previously unnoted declines in summer precipitation from 1979 to 2016 across 31-45% of the forested areas in the western United States are strongly associated with burned area variations. The number of wetting rain days (WRD; days with precipitation ≥2.54 mm) during the fire season partially regulated the temperature and subsequent vapor pressure deficit (VPD) previously implicated as a primary driver of annual wildfire area burned. We use path analysis to decompose the relative influence of declining snowpack, rising temperatures, and declining precipitation on observed fire activity increases. After accounting for interactions, the net effect of WRD anomalies on wildfire area burned was more than 2.5 times greater than the net effect of VPD, and both the WRD and VPD effects were substantially greater than the influence of winter snowpack. These results suggest that precipitation during the fire season exerts the strongest control on burned area either directly through its wetting effects or indirectly through feedbacks to VPD. If these trends persist, decreases in summer precipitation and the associated summertime aridity increases would lead to more burned area across the western United States with far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

Abstract. We introduce EcH2O-iso, a new development of the physically based, fully distributed ecohydrological model EcH2O where the tracking of water isotopic tracers (2H and 18O) and age has been incorporated. EcH2O-iso is evaluated at a montane, low-energy experimental catchment in northern Scotland using 16 independent isotope time series from various landscape positions and compartments, encompassing soil water, groundwater, stream water, and plant xylem. The simulation results show consistent isotopic ranges and temporal variability (seasonal and higher frequency) across the soil profile at most sites (especially on hillslopes), broad model–data agreement in heather xylem, and consistent deuterium dynamics in stream water and in groundwater. Since EcH2O-iso was calibrated only using hydrometric and energy flux datasets, tracking water composition provides a truly independent validation of the physical basis of the model for successfully capturing catchment hydrological functioning, both in terms of the celerity in energy propagation shaping the hydrological response (e.g. runoff generation under prevailing hydraulic gradients) and flow velocities of water molecules (e.g. in consistent tracer concentrations at given locations and times). Additionally, we show that the spatially distributed formulation of EcH2O-iso has the potential to quantitatively link water stores and fluxes with spatiotemporal patterns of isotope ratios and water ages. However, our case study also highlights model–data discrepancies in some compartments, such as an over-dampened variability in groundwater and stream water lc-excess, and over-fractionated riparian topsoils. The adopted minimalistic framework, without site-specific parameterisation of isotopes and age tracking, allows us to learn from these mismatches in further model development and benchmarking needs, while taking into account the idiosyncracies of our study catchment. Notably, we suggest that more advanced conceptualisation of soil water mixing and of plant water use would be needed to reproduce some of the observed patterns. Balancing the need for basic hypothesis testing with that of improved simulations of catchment dynamics for a range of applications (e.g. plant water use under changing environmental conditions, water quality issues, and calibration-derived estimates of landscape characteristics), further work could also benefit from including isotope-based calibration.

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr , but also highlight regions of uncertainty where more observations are required or environmental controls are hard to constrain.

a b s t r a c tWe assessed whether a complex, process-based ecohydrological model can be appropriately parameterized to reproduce the key water flux and storage dynamics at a long-term research catchment in the Scottish Highlands. We used the fully-distributed ecohydrological model EcH 2 O, calibrated against longterm datasets that encompass hydrologic and energy exchanges, and ecological measurements. Applying diverse combinations of these constraints revealed that calibration against virtually all datasets enabled the model to reproduce streamflow reasonably well. However, parameterizing the model to adequately capture local flux and storage dynamics, such as soil moisture or transpiration, required calibration with specific observations. This indicates that the footprint of the information contained in observations varies for each type of dataset, and that a diverse database informing about the different compartments of the domain, is critical to identify consistent model parameterizations. These results foster confidence in using EcH 2 O to contribute to understanding current and future ecohydrological couplings in Northern catchments.