Clearing tropical vegetation impacts biodiversity, the provision of ecosystem services, and thus ultimately human welfare. We quantified changes in land cover from 2000 to 2015 across the Cerrado biome of northern Minas Gerais state, Brazil. We assessed the potential biophysical and socio-economic drivers of the loss of Cerrado, natural regeneration and net cover change at the municipality level. Further, we evaluated correlations between these land change variables and indicators of human welfare. We detected extensive land-cover changes in the study area, with the conversion of 23 446 km 2 and the natural regeneration of 13 926 km 2 , resulting in a net loss of 9520 km 2 . The annual net loss (−1.2% per year) of the cover of Cerrado is higher than that reported for the whole biome in similar periods. We argue that environmental and economic variables interact to underpin rates of conversion of Cerrado, most severely affecting more humid Cerrado lowlands. While rates of Cerrado regeneration are important for conservation strategies of the remaining biome, their integrity must be investigated given the likelihood of encroachment. Given the high frequency of land abandonment in tropical regions, secondary vegetation is fundamental to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, the impacts of Cerrado conversion on human welfare likely vary from local to regional scales, making it difficult to elaborate land-use policies based solely on socio-economic indicators. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’.

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The determination of land cover changes (LCCs) and their association to biophysical and socioeconomic factors is vital to support government policies toward the sustainable use of natural resources. The present study aimed to quantify deforestation, forest recovery and net cover change in tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Brazil from 2007 to 2016, and investigate how they are associated to biophysical and socioeconomic factors. We also assessed the effects of LCC variables in human welfare indicators. For this purpose, we used MODIS imagery to calculate TDF gross loss (deforestation), gross gain (forest recovery) and net cover change (the balance between deforestation and forest recovery) for 294 counties in three Brazilian states (Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Piauí). We obtained seven factors potentially associated to LCC at the county level: total county area, road density, humidity index, slope, elevation, and % change in human population and in cattle density. From 2007 to 2016, TDF cover increased from 76,693 to 80,964 km2 (+5.6%). This positive net change resulted from a remarkable forest recovery of 19,018 km2 (24.8%), offsetting a large deforested area (14,748 km2; 19.2%). Practically all these cover changes were a consequence of transitions from TDF to pastures and vice-versa, highlighting the importance of developing sustainable policies for cattle raising in TDF regions. Each LCC variable was associated to different set of factors, but two biophysical variables were significantly associated both to TDF area gained and lost per county: county area (positively) and slope (negatively), indicating that large and flat counties have very dynamic LCCs. The TDF net area change was only associated (negatively) to the humidity index, reflecting an increase in TDF cover in more arid counties. The net increase in Brazilian TDF area is likely a result from an interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic factors that reduced deforestation and caused pasture abandonment. Although the ecological integrity and permanence of secondary TDFs need further investigation, the recovery of this semi-arid ecosystem must be valued and accounted for in the national forest restoration programs, as it would significantly help achieving the goals established in the Bonn agreement and the Atlantic Rain Forest pact.

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