Background and purpose National guidelines for treatment of distal radius fractures (DRFs) were presented in Sweden in 2021. In the guidelines, a fast-track is recommended for 4 subgroups of highly unstable DRFs. Regardless of the results of the closed reduction these are recommended for surgery within 1 week of injury. This study aims to evaluate the potential consequences of the newly presented national guidelines on incidence of surgical interventions. Patients and methods In all, 1,609 patients (1,635 DRFs) with primary radiographs after a DRF between 2014 and 2017 at two Swedish hospitals were included in a retrospective cohort study. An estimation was made of the percentage of patients in the historical pre-guidelines cohort, that would have been recommended early primary surgery according to the new national guidelines compared to treatment implemented without the support of these guidelines. Results On a strict radiological basis, 32% (516 out of 1635) of DRFs were classified into one of the 4 defined subgroups. At 9–13 days follow-up, cast treatment was converted into delayed primary surgery in 201 cases. Out of these, 56% (112 out of 201) fulfilled the fast-track criteria and would with the new guidelines have been subject to early primary surgery. Interpretation The fast-track regimen in the new guidelines, has a high likelihood of identifying the unstable fractures benefitting from early primary surgery. If the proposed Swedish national guidelines for DRF treatment are implemented, a greater proportion of fractures would be treated with early primary surgery, and a delayed surgery avoided in the majority of cases. The potential benefits in relation to possible costs when using the fast-track criteria in every day practice are still unknown.