This paper provides a summary of mass COVID-19 testing of almost the entire population in Slovakia by antigen tests. We focused on the results delivered by two testing rounds and analyzed the benefits and weaknesses of such type of testing. We prepared mathematical models to critically examine the effectiveness of the testing, and we also estimated the number of potentially sick people that would become infected by those marked as positives by antigen tests. Our calculations have proven that antigen testing in hotspots can flatten the curve of daily newly reported cases significantly, but in regions with low-risk of COVID-19, the benefit of such testing is questionable. As for the regions with low infection rates, we could only estimate the proportion of true and false-positive cases because the national health authority had not validated the results by RT–PCR tests. Therefore, this work can serve as an introductory study on the first nationwide testing by antigen tests in Europe.
Research background: The COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the world in the first quarter of 2020, has impacted almost every area of people's lives. Many states have introduced varying degrees of measures to prevent its spread. Most of these measures were, or still are, aimed at reducing or completely stopping the operation of shops and services, or in some cases, also the large manufacturing companies. However, as many companies have failed to cope with these restrictions, unemployment has risen in almost all EU countries. A similar situation was also observed in Slovakia, where the mentioned measures also had a significant impact on unemployment. Purpose of the article: In this study, we deal with the quantification of the impact of a pandemic, or more precisely, anti-pandemic measures, on the development of the registered unemployment rate in Slovakia. Methods: This quantification is based on the counterfactual method of before-after comparison, which is one of the most widely used methods in the field of impact assessments and brings very accurate results, based on real data. In the analysis, we use officially published data on the unemployment rate in Slovakia during the years 2013?2020 on a monthly basis. Such a long time series, using statistical methods of its decomposition and modelling of its trend, will allow predicting the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia, assuming a counterfactual situation of no pandemic, and compare this development with the actual situation that occurred during 2020. Findings & Value added: The study results indicate an increase in the unemployment rate in Slovakia during 2020 by 2?3% compared to the trend of its development, which would have occurred without a pandemic. Given the counterfactual method used, this difference can be described as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the study can be used in practice in the design and implementation of measures introduced to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic on unemployment and, in the long-term perspective, also to eliminate these effects as much as possible. It can also be used as a theoretical tool in conducting impact assessments, which have so far been carried out very rarely in Slovakia.
Research background: The issue of predicting the financial situation of companies is a relatively young field of economic research. Its origin dates back to the 30's of the 20th century, but constant research in this area proves the currentness of this topic even today. The issue of predicting the financial situation of a company is up to date not only for the company itself, but also for all stakeholders. Purpose of the article: The main purpose of this study is to create new prediction models by using the method of decision trees, in achieving sufficient prediction power of the generated model with a large database of real data on Polish companies obtained from the Amadeus database. Methods: As a result of the development of artificial intelligence, new methods for predicting financial failure of the company have been introduced into financial prediction analysis. One of the most widely used data mining techniques in this field is the method of decision trees. In the paper, we applied the CART and CHAID approach to create a model of predicting the financial difficulties of Polish companies. Findings & Value added: For the creation of the prediction model, a total of 37 financial and economic indicators of Polish companies were used. The resulting decision trees based prediction models for Polish companies reach a prediction power of more than 98%. The success of the classification for non-prosperous companies is more than 83%. The created decision tree-based prediction models are useful mainly for predicting the financial difficulties of Polish companies, but can also be used for companies in another country.
Prediction of the financial difficulties of companies has been dealt with over the last years by scientists and economists worldwide. Several prediction models mostly focused on a particular sector of the national economy, have been created also in Slovakia. The main purpose of this paper is to create new prediction models for small and medium-sized companies in Slovakia, based on real data from the Amadeus database from the years 2016–2018. We created prediction models of financial difficulties of companies for 1 year in advance and also a model for 2 years prediction. These models are based on the combination of two methods, discriminant analysis and logistic regression that belong, among others, to the group of the most commonly used methods to derive prediction models of financial difficulties of the companies. The overall prediction powers of the combined model are 90.6%, 93.8% and 90.4%. The results of this analysis can be used for early prediction of the financial difficulties of the company, that could be very useful for all the stakeholders.
A necessary condition for economic development and raising living standards in Slovakia is to address employment issues in a way that would inter alia contribute to employment sustainability. This important fact mirrors in the study that directly analyses the employability and sustainability of young unemployed jobseekers, participants of the intervention “Graduate Practice”, in the Slovak labour market in 2014–2017 by applying a counterfactual approach. The intervention is one of the active policy measures in the labour market, and its implementation is subject to the specifics of the excluded group of the unemployed. Its aim is to help the members of the group find a job and gain work experience and habits. The impacts of the intervention on the employability and sustainability of young graduates were evaluated based on real data using the caliper-matching technique, the technique of the propensity score-matching method. The intervention database was relatively robust and included 42,626 participants over a 24-month impact period. In the analysis, we considered both the effectiveness and efficiency of the Graduate Practice. The findings point to no or very weak effects of the intervention, especially to the long-term sustainability of jobs. However, its impact on the state budget we consider as positive due to the intervention’s ability to reduce total costs of unemployed graduates. From the methodology point of view, the use of the method is appropriate in finding possible imbalances in the active and passive policies of the labour market. The results of the study themselves have the explanatory power not only for Slovak policymakers but also for policymakers at the level of the European Union. The results are helpful in creating other interventions and setting their conditions for future periods to bring a desired effect on employability and sustainability of members of excluded groups in general.
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