BackgroundDesigning effective public health campaigns in areas of armed conflict requires a nuanced understanding of how violence impacts the epidemiology of the disease in question.MethodsWe examine the geographical relationship between violence (represented by the location of detonated Improvised Explosive Devices) and polio incidence by generating maps of IEDs and polio incidence during 2010, and by comparing the mean number of IED detonations in polio high-risk districts with non polio high-risk districts during 2004–2009.ResultsWe demonstrate a geographic relationship between IED violence and incident polio. Districts that have high-risk for polio have highly statistically significantly greater mean numbers of IEDs than non polio high-risk districts (p-values 0.0010–0.0404).ConclusionsThe geographic relationship between armed conflict and polio incidence provides valuable insights as to how to plan a vaccination campaign in violent contexts, and allows us to anticipate incident polio in the regions of armed conflict. Such information permits vaccination planners to engage interested armed combatants to co-develop strategies to mitigate the effects of violence on polio.

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BackgroundAlthough it is widely acknowledged that areas of conflict are associated with a high health burden, from a geospatial perspective it is difficult to establish these patterns at fine scales because of a lack of data. The release of the “WikiLeaks” Afghan War Diary (AWD) provides an interesting opportunity to advance analysis and theory into this interrelationship.MethodsThis paper will apply two different space time analyses to identify patterns of improvised explosive devices (IED) detonations for the period of 2004 to 2009 in Afghanistan.ResultsThere is considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in IED explosions, with concentrations often following transportation links. The results are framed in terms of a resource for subsequent analyses to other existing health research in Afghanistan. To facilitate this, in our discussion we present a Google Earth file of overlapping rates that can be distributed to any researcher interested in combining his/her fine scale health data with a similarly granular layer of violence.ConclusionThe release of the AWD presents a previously unavailable opportunity to consider how spatially detailed data about violence can be incorporated into understanding, and predicting, health related spillover effects. The AWD can enrich previous research conducted on Afghanistan, and provide a justification for future “official” data sharing at appropriately fine scales.

BackgroundDestruction of health systems in fragile and conflict-affected states increases civilian mortality. Despite the size, scope, scale and political influence of international security forces intervening in fragile states, little attention has been paid to array of ways they may impact health systems beyond their effects on short-term humanitarian health aid delivery.MethodsUsing case studies we published on international security forces’ impacts on health systems in Haiti, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Libya, we conducted a comparative analysis that examined three questions: What aspects, or building blocks, of health systems did security forces impact across the cases and what was the nature of these impacts? What forums or mechanisms did international security forces use to interact with health system actors? What policies facilitated or hindered security forces from supporting health systems?ResultsWe found international security forces impacted health system governance, information systems and indigenous health delivery organizations. Positive impacts included bolstering the authority, transparency and capability of health system leadership. Negative impacts included undermining the impartial nature of indigenous health institutions by using health projects to achieve security objectives. Interactions between security and health actors were primarily ad hoc, often to the detriment of health system support efforts. When international security forces were engaged in health system support activities, the most helpful communication and consultative mechanisms to manage their involvement were ones that could address a wide array of problems, were nimble enough to accommodate rapidly changing circumstances, leveraged the power of personal relationships, and were able to address the tensions that arose between security and health system supporting strategies. Policy barriers to international security organizations participating in health system support included lack of mandate, conflicts between security strategies and health system preservation, and lack of interoperability between security and indigenous health organizations with respect to logistics and sharing information.ConclusionsThe cases demonstrate both the opportunities and risks of international security organizations involvement in health sector protection, recovery and reconstruction. We discuss two potential approaches to engaging these organizations in health system support that may increase the chances of realizing these opportunities while mitigating risks.

The geographic reach of the program is vast and projects take place in a wide variety of public sectors. Yet their security and civilian assistance value remains unclear given the lack of stated project goals, implementation strategies, or measures of effectiveness. To facilitate transparency and policy discussion, we recommend project proposals include hypotheses as to how they will enhance US security, their relevance to the public sector they address, and outcome and impact indicators that can assess their value and effectiveness.