Abstract. The hypothesis put forward for discussion is that, among normal persons, differences in “intelligence” (i.e., innate general cognitive ability) are determined by a large number of genes, segregating in accordance with Mendelian principles and each producing effects that are small, similar, and cumulative. From these assumptions, with a due allowance for dominance and assortative mating, formulae are derived for the correlations to be expected between siblings, parents and offspring, and remoter relatives. Data from school surveys yield coefficients which are in almost complete agreement with the theoretical figures thus deduced. An attempt is also made to analyse the variance of the assessments obtained, and to estimate the contributions of genetic factors and non‐genetic factors respectively. Appreciable differences are found between the results obtained from raw measurements based directly on intelligence tests and those obtained from revised or adjusted assessments based on all the available evidence. With the former nearly 25 per cent. of the variance is apparently due to non‐genetic factors; with the latter barely half that amount.
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The original formula for rescaling estimates and test‐scores was derived from the three basic assumptions used by Galton and Pearson when deducing their formulae for the correlation coefficient; but it makes no allowance for differences in reliability and validity. However, the various modifications since suggested appear to rest on highly speculative arguments, and the improvements so obtained are seldom large enough to be statistically significant. On the basis of actual trials with tests and estimates of average validity, assessments of the predictive accuracy to be expected with the original formula have been computed. The accuracy diminishes progressively with the time‐interval involved, but remains high enough to justify its use for the practical purposes of the educationist.
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