RATIONALE: The prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) for survival in cystic fibrosis (CF) in the context of current clinical management, when controlling for other known prognostic factors is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prognostic value of CPET-derived measures beyond peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) following rigorous adjustment for other predictors. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Data from 10 CF-centers in Australia, Europe and North America were collected retrospectively. 510 patients completed a cycle CPET between January 2000 and December 2007, of which 433 fulfilled the criteria for a maximal effort. Time to death/lung transplantation (LTx) was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. In addition, phenotyping using hirarchical Ward's clustering was performed to characterize high risk subgroups. Cox regression showed-even after adjustment for sex, forced expiratory volume in 1s (%predicted), body mass index (z-score), age at CPET, Pseudomonas aeruginosa status, and CF-related diabetes as covariates in the model-that VO2peak in %predicted, hazard ratio (HR) 0.964 [95%-CI: 0.944-0.986], peak work rate (%predicted, HR 0.969 [0.951-0.988], ventilatory equivalent for oxygen (VE/VO2peak) HR 1.085 [1.041-1.132], and carbon dioxide (VE/VCO2peak), HR 1.060 [1.007-1.115], all P<0.05) were significant predictors of death or LTx at 10 years follow-up. Phenotyping revealed that CPET-derived measures were important for clustering. We identified a high risk cluster characterized by poor lung function, nutritional status and exercise capacity. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, CPET provides additional prognostic information to established predictors of death/LTx in CF. High risk patients may especially benefit from regular monitoring of exercise capacity and exercise counselling.

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Swedish Cystic Fibrosis (CF) care follows international guidelines in general. The only difference in our CF care package since 25 years is the physiotherapy regimen. Airway clearance therapy has since the early 1980s, from the day of diagnosis, been based upon daily physical exercise in conjunction with techniques for transporting and evacuating mucus. Postural Drainage+/-percussion and vibration has not been used in any age. The aim of this study was to evaluate our CF care package. Lung function data from the start of the study and with a 3-year interval were collected in the entire Swedish CF population > or =7 years old. Data were analysed for the age groups 7-17 and > or =18 years of age. Change of lung function over the study period was calculated. The impact of chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) colonisation and basal FEV(1)%p was also evaluated in a linear mixed model. Data from 99% of the country-wide CF population were available at inclusion. Mean FEV(1)%p was 90+/-21 vs 73+/-26 in the different age groups and mean VC%p was 94+/-18 vs 91+/-20. Forty percent of the adult group was > or =30 years old. Overall, 41% were chronically Pa colonised. Mean annual FEV(1)%p rate of decline was 0.77 and 0.64 in the different age groups. Lung function among Swedish CF patients is good and annual rate of decline low, even in an old cohort. The large proportion of adult patients emphasises future demands on CF care.