Attachment theory has routinely been considered essential for those working with children. However, contemporary literature and research on attachment offers some compelling insights for work with offenders, particularly in the way that empathy is developed and mood is regulated.

The aim of this research was to examine the thought processes that practitionersKeywords: risk; assessment; actuarial; clinical; static; dynamic Probation practitioners are not unique in being expected to predict the future. Social workers predict whether children will be safe living with their families, medics predict how symptoms will develop, and workers in the financial sector predict movement within markets. All these tasks have inbuilt uncertainty, and workers within all of those fields will be versed in the relative merit of prediction based on standardised, statistically-based tools, and prediction based on professional judgment.

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Attachment theory is familiar to probation workers, with its broad messages that early care can leave a lasting legacy, and that patterns of relating can be repeated throughout the lifespan. Up close however, attachment theory is complex, and research findings sometimes vague or contested. This empirical research examined the use of four key attachment-based concepts in generic probation practice over a period of six months. The concept of the probation officer as a potential secure base was a useful one, as was the idea that service users' early attachment history could help to understand relationships and offending. Other concepts (the reflective function and attachment style) were less useful.

This is an examination of 90 Serious Incident Reports (SIRs) which were generated in the London Probation Area between January 2002 and July 2003. The results showed that offenders assessed as high risk generated a disproportionately high number of SIRs, but equally serious incidents occurred across all risk bands.Interpretation of this is not straightforward; despite confirming considerable accuracy by Probation staff in identifying those most likely to inflict harm, it also demonstrates the limitations of risk prediction, and the need for considerable skill and knowledge among staff who work with offenders of all risk bands. Among other findings it emerged that nearly a third of alleged offences that triggered SIRs were of rape.Lastly, there was a clear contrast in the predictive power of previous convictions: over half of those triggering a serious incident report through violent behaviour had previous convictions of violence, whereas under a quarter of those accused of a sexual offence had previous sexual convictions. Superficially this confirms that past violent behaviour is a powerful predictor of future violence, but also reflects the considerable gap between offending and conviction for sexual offenders.