Wild bee populations are threatened by current agricultural practices in many parts of the world, which may put pollination services and crop yields at risk. Loss of pollination services can potentially be predicted by models that link bee abundances with landscape-scale land-use, but there is little knowledge on the degree to which these statistical models are transferable across time and space. This study assesses the transferability of models for wild bee abundance in a mass-flowering crop across space (from one region to another) and across time (from one year to another). The models used existing data on bumblebee and solitary bee abundance in winter oilseed rape fields, together with high-resolution land-use crop-cover and semi-natural habitats data, from studies conducted in five different regions located in four countries (Sweden, Germany, Netherlands and the UK), in three different years (2011, 2012, 2013). We developed a hierarchical model combining all studies and evaluated the transferability using cross-validation. We found that both the landscape-scale cover of mass-flowering crops and permanent semi-natural habitats, including grasslands and forests, are important drivers of wild bee abundance in all regions. However, while the negative effect of increasing mass-flowering crops on the density of the pollinators is consistent between studies, the direction of the effect of semi-natural habitat is variable between studies. The transferability of these statistical models is limited, especially across regions, but also across time. Our study demonstrates the limits of using statistical models in conjunction with widely available land-use crop-cover classes for extrapolating pollinator density across years and regions, likely in part because input variables such as cover of semi-natural habitats poorly capture variability in pollinator resources between regions and years.

Neonicotinoid insecticides applied to flowering crops can have negative impacts on bees, with implications for crop pollination. To assess if exposure to the neonicotinoid clothianidin via a treated crop (rapeseed) affected bee behaviour, pollination performance (to strawberry), and bee reproduction, we provided each of 12 outdoor cages with rapeseed (autumn-sown plants complemented with a few spring-sown plants to extend the flowering period) grown from either clothianidin-treated or untreated (control) seeds, together with strawberry plants and a small population of red mason bees (Osmia bicornis). We expected clothianidin to reduce bee foraging activity, resulting in impaired strawberry pollination and bee reproduction. During the early stage of the experiment, we observed no difference between treatments in the length of entire foraging trips, or the combined number of rapeseed and strawberry flowers that the bees visited during these trips. During the later stage of the experiment, we instead determined the time a female took to visit 10 rapeseed flowers, as a proxy for foraging performance. We found that they were 10% slower in clothianidin cages. Strawberries weighed less in clothianidin cages, suggesting reduced pollination performance, but we were unable to relate this to reduced foraging activity, because the strawberry flowers received equally many visits in the two treatments. Clothianidin-exposed females sealed their nests less often, but offspring number, sex ratio and weight were similar between treatments. Observed effects on bee behaviour appeared by the end of the experiment, possibly because of accumulated effects of exposure, reduced bee longevity, or higher sensitivity of the protocols we used during the later phase of the experiment. Although the lack of a mechanistic explanation calls for interpreting the results with cautiousness, the lower strawberry weight in clothianidin cages highlights the importance of understanding complex effects of plant protection products, which could have wider consequences than those on directly exposed organisms.

Bumblebees are a key taxon contributing to the provision of crop pollination and ecosystem functioning. However, land use and climate change are two of the main factors causing bee decline across the world. In this study, we investigated how the flight period of bumblebee spring queens has shifted over the last century in Sweden, and to what extent such shifts depended on climate change, landscape context, latitude, and the phenology of bumblebee species. We studied ten species of bumblebees and used observations from museum specimens covering 117 years from the southernmost region in Sweden (Scania), combined with citizen-reported observations during the past 20 years across Sweden. We found that the flight period of bumblebees has advanced by 5 days on average during the last 20 years across Sweden. In the agriculture-dominated region of Scania, we found that in the late 2010s bumblebee spring queen activity in simplified landscapes had advanced by on average 14 days, compared to 100 years ago. In addition, in simplified landscapes the flight period of early species was significantly earlier compared to in complex landscapes. Our results provide knowledge on the intraspecific variation of phenological traits, indicating that early species (often common species) exhibit a higher plastic response to the environment, which may facilitate adaptation to both climate and landscape changes, compared to the late species of which many are declining.

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The viability of wild bee populations and the pollination services that they provide are driven by the availability of food resources during their activity period and within the surroundings of their nesting sites. Changes in climate and land use influence the availability of these resources and are major threats to declining bee populations. Because wild bees may be vulnerable to interactions between these threats, spatially explicit models of population dynamics that capture how bee populations jointly respond to land use at a landscape scale and weather are needed. Here, we developed a spatially and temporally explicit theoretical model of wild bee populations aiming for a middle ground between the existing mapping of visitation rates using foraging equations and more refined agent‐based modeling. The model is developed for Bombus sp. and captures within‐season colony dynamics. The model describes mechanistically foraging at the colony level and temporal population dynamics for an average colony at the landscape level. Stages in population dynamics are temperature‐dependent triggered by a theoretical generalized seasonal progression, which can be informed by growing degree days. The purpose of the LandscapePhenoBee model is to evaluate the impact of system changes and within‐season variability in resources on bee population sizes and crop visitation rates. In a simulation study, we used the model to evaluate the impact of the shortage of food resources in the landscape arising from extreme drought events in different types of landscapes (ranging from different proportions of semi‐natural habitats and early and late flowering crops) on bumblebee populations.