CORINE Land Cover is one of the most relevant Land Use Cover (LUC) databases in Europe because of its degree of detail and long time series. Although some studies have assessed the uncertainty of the database for specific years and periods, no work has been found that analyses all the available CORINE time series (1990-2018). In this study, we analyze the uncertainties of the CORINE time series for a specific Spanish region (Asturias). To this end, we compare and analyze the CORINE status layers (CLC) and the CORINE layers of changes (CHA) for each of the mapped periods: 1990-2000, 2000-2006, 2006-2012, 2012-2018. Results show how CLC and CHA layers provide different information, especially after the change of production of CORINE Spain in 2012. The last two CORINE editions (2012, 2018) show a lot of technical changes that make the use of CLC layers very uncertain. In addition, mixed categories, whose definition is imprecise and, therefore, more uncertain, are behind most of detected change in both types of CORINE layers (CHA, CLC).
Research on the uncertainty of Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) models is still limited. Through this paper, we aim to globally characterize the structural uncertainty of four common software packages (CA_Markov, Dinamica EGO, Land Change Modeler, Metronamica) and analyse the options that they offer for uncertainty management.The models have been compared qualitatively, based on their structures and tools, and quantitatively, through a study case for the city of Cape Town. Results proved how each model conceptualised the modelled system in a different way, which led to different outputs. Statistical or automatic approaches did not prove to be more successful that user-driven approaches. The available options for uncertainty management vary depending on the model. No model pays enough attention to the communication of uncertainties.
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