This paper seeks to capture the dynamic interaction between the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 and its effect on the macroeconomy, in absence of widespread vaccination. We do that by building a stylized two-equations dynamical system in the COVID-19 positivity rate and the unemployment rate. The solution of the system makes the case for an endemic equilibrium of COVID-19 infections, thus producing waves in the two variables in the absence of widespread immunity through vaccination. Furthermore, we model the impact of the pandemicdriven unemployment shock on output, showing how the emergence of cyclical downswings could determine a L-shaped recession in the medium run, in absence of adequate stimulus policies. Moreover, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US. The simulation highlights the effects on unemployment and on overall economic activity produced by recurrent waves of COVID-19, which risk to jeopardize the coming back to the precrisis trend in the medium run.

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The response of governments to the COVID-19 outbreak was foremost oriented to two objectives: saving lives and limiting economic losses. However, the effectiveness and success factors of interventions were unknown ex-ante. This study aims to shed light on the drivers of countries’ performances during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We measure performances by excess mortality and GDP growth adjusted for additional fiscal stimulus. We conduct an empirical analysis in two stages: first, using hierarchical clustering, we partition countries based on their similarity in health and economic outcomes. Second, we identify the key drivers of outcomes in each country cluster by regression analysis, which include linear, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and logit models. We argue that differences in countries’ performances can be traced back both to policy responses to COVID-19 and structural conditions, the latter being immutable over the pandemic. Three relevant structural conditions emerge from the results: trade reliance on services, corruption, and the size of the vulnerable population (elderly, low-income, smoking, or cardiovascular-failing). Policies such as large-scale open public testing and additional fiscal stimulus in non-health could help reduce excess mortality, which might lead to lower economic losses.

This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and policy conclusions of the Sraan Supermultiplier model (SSM) and the modied Neo-Kaleckian model after the inclusion of autonomous components of aggregate demand. First, we theoretically assess whether the SSM may constitute a complex variant of the Neo-Kaleckian model. In this sense, it is shown that results compatible with the SSM can be obtained by implementing a set of mechanisms in a modied Neo-Kaleckian model.Second, the paper empirically tests the main implications of the models in the Euro Area, based on Eurostat data. In particular, the discussion outlines the short and long-run relation between autonomous demand and output, by testing cointegration and causality with a VECM model. Moreover, the role accounted by both theories to the rate of capacity utilization is empirically assessed, through a time-series estimation of the Sraan and Neo-Kaleckian investment functions. While conrming the theoretical relation between autonomous demand and output in the long run, the results show that capacity utilization still plays a key role in the short-run adjustment mechanism. Therefore, admitting that Keynesian results may hold even after the traverse, our work suggests to be Kaleckian in the short run and Sraan in the long run.

This paper develops a stylized short-run neo-Kaleckian model incorporating personal income inequality and income taxes based on You and Dutt (1996). The main goal is to investigate how changes in income taxes and personal income distribution affect output growth. The theoretical discussion of the stylized model is then empirically assessed, using data for Italy retrieved from the Survey of Household Income and Wealth published by the Bank of Italy. The empirical analysis confirms both the heterogeneity of the propensities to consume of Italian households and the dominance of absolute income effects in the Italian consumer behavior that assures the negative trade-off between inequality and aggregate demand. More specifically, it is shown that, overall, Italians are still income constrained, not allowing for a compensation of the demand-depressing effects of raising inequality via debt and wealth-based consumption. Likewise, it is argued that decreasing personal income inequality via progressive income tax reforms would have positive effects on aggregate demand, utilization, and growth.