Background Aedes aegypti is an important vector for arboviroses and widely distributed throughout the world. Climatic factors can influence vector population dynamics and, consequently, disease transmission. The aim of this study was to characterize the temporal dynamics of an Ae. aegypti population and dengue cases and to investigate the relationship between meteorological variables and mosquito infestation.MethodsWe monitored and analyzed the adult female Ae. aegypti population, the dengue-fever vector, in Porto Alegre, a subtropical city in Brazil using the MI-Dengue system (intelligent dengue monitoring). This system uses sticky traps to monitor weekly infestation indices. We fitted generalized additive models (GAM) with climate variables including precipitation, temperature and humidity, and a GAM that additionally included mosquito abundance in the previous week as an explanatory variable. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the effect of adult mosquito infestation on the probability of dengue occurrence.ResultsAdult mosquito abundance was strongly seasonal, with low infestation indices during the winters and high infestation during the summers. Weekly minimum temperatures above 18 °C were strongly associated with increased mosquito abundance, whereas humidity above 75% had a negative effect on abundance. The GAM model that included adult mosquito infestation in the previous week adjusted and predicted the observed data much better than the model which included only meteorological predictor variables. Dengue was also seasonal and 98% of all cases occurred at times of high adult Ae. aegypti infestation. The probability of dengue occurrence increased by 25%, when the mean number of adult mosquitos caught by monitoring traps increased by 0.1 mosquitoes per week.ConclusionsThe results suggest that continuous monitoring of dengue vector population allows for more reliable predictions of infestation indices. The adult mosquito infestation index was a good predictor of dengue occurrence. Weekly adult dengue vector monitoring is a helpful dengue control strategy in subtropical Brazilian cities.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-017-2025-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundDengue viruses have spread rapidly across tropical regions of the world in recent decades. Today, dengue transmission is observed in the Americas, Southeast Asia, Western Pacific, Africa and in non-endemic areas of the USA and Europe. Dengue is responsible for 16% of travel-related febrile illnesses. Although most prevalent in tropical areas, risk maps indicate that subtropical regions are suitable for transmission. Dengue-control programs in these regions should focus on minimizing virus importation, community engagement, improved vector surveillance and control.ResultsWe developed a conceptual model for the probability of local introduction and propagation of dengue, comprising disease vulnerability and receptivity, in a temperate area, considering risk factors and social media indicators. Using a rich data set from a temperate area in the south of Brazil (where there is active surveillance of mosquitoes, viruses and human cases), we used a conceptual model as a framework to build two probabilistic models to estimate the probability of initiation and propagation of local dengue transmission. The final models estimated with good accuracy the probabilities of local transmission and propagation, with three and four weeks in advance, respectively. Vulnerability indicators (number of imported cases and dengue virus circulation in mosquitoes) and a receptivity indicator (vector abundance) could be optimally integrated with tweets and temperature data to estimate probability of early local dengue transmission.ConclusionsWe demonstrated how vulnerability and receptivity indicators can be integrated into probabilistic models to estimate initiation and propagation of dengue transmission. The models successfully estimate disease risk in different scenarios and periods of the year. We propose a decision model with three different risk levels to assist in the planning of prevention and control measures in temperate regions at risk of dengue introduction.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3280-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Resumo O uso de placebo em pesquisa clínica tem sido motivo de debate nos últimos anos, sobretudo após a Associação Médica Mundial publicar, em 2002, nota de esclarecimento do parágrafo 29 da Declaração de Helsinki. O Brasil tem se destacado por sua posição firme e contrária ao uso flexível de placebo. Tanto o Conselho Federal de Medicina quanto o Conselho Nacional de Saúde editaram resoluções que normatizam seu uso no Brasil, de forma a não admiti-lo em caso da existência de um método terapêutico melhor. O presente artigo reforça essa posição e tem por objetivo descrever as diversas aplicações de placebo em pesquisa clínica, bem como trazer à luz a complexa decisão sobre a eticidade de seu uso. Além disso, os autores propõem uma reflexão acerca da utilização de placebo no âmbito da pesquisa, por meio de algoritmos decisórios baseados nas normativas éticas brasileiras.

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Enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and electron microscopy (EM) were utilized to investigate the presence of rotavirus in feces of 388 children with acute enteritis hospitalized at the Hospital Santa Casa de Misericórdia in Porto Alegre, Brazil. The survey covered 12 months, beginning in July 1981. There were 162 rotavirus-positive cases (41.8%). During the period of the study rotavirus was detected throughout the year, but there was a striking seasonal variation (78.1% of cases) during January 1982.