Within the tropics, the species richness of tree communities is strongly and positively associated with precipitation. Previous research has suggested that this macroecological pattern is driven by the negative effect of water‐stress on the physiological processes of most tree species. This implies that the range limits of taxa are defined by their ability to occur under dry conditions, and thus in terms of species distributions predicts a nested pattern of taxa distribution from wet to dry areas. However, this ‘dry‐tolerance’ hypothesis has yet to be adequately tested at large spatial and taxonomic scales. Here, using a dataset of 531 inventory plots of closed canopy forest distributed across the western Neotropics we investigated how precipitation, evaluated both as mean annual precipitation and as the maximum climatological water deficit, influences the distribution of tropical tree species, genera and families. We find that the distributions of tree taxa are indeed nested along precipitation gradients in the western Neotropics. Taxa tolerant to seasonal drought are disproportionally widespread across the precipitation gradient, with most reaching even the wettest climates sampled; however, most taxa analysed are restricted to wet areas. Our results suggest that the ‘dry tolerance' hypothesis has broad applicability in the world's most species‐rich forests. In addition, the large number of species restricted to wetter conditions strongly indicates that an increased frequency of drought could severely threaten biodiversity in this region. Overall, this study establishes a baseline for exploring how tropical forest tree composition may change in response to current and future environmental changes in this region.

One of the few rules in ecology is that communities are composed of many rare and few common species. Trait-based investigations of abundance distributions have generally focused on species-mean trait values with mixed success. Here, using large tropical tree seedling datasets in China and Puerto Rico, we take an alternative approach that considers the magnitude of intraspecific variation in traits and growth as it relates to species abundance. We find that common species are less variable in their traits and growth. Common species also occupy core positions within community trait space indicating that they are finely tuned for the available conditions. Rare species are functionally peripheral and are likely transients struggling for success in the given environment. The work highlights the importance of considering intraspecific variation in trait-based ecology and demonstrates asymmetry in the magnitude of intraspecific variation among species is critical for understanding of how traits are related to abundance.

Forging strong links between traits and performance is essential for understanding and predicting community assembly and dynamics. Functional trait analyses of trees that have correlated single-trait values with measures of performance such as growth and mortality have generally found weak relationships. A reason for these weak relationships is the failure to use individual-level trait data while simultaneously putting that data into the context of the abiotic setting, neighborhood composition, and the remaining axes constituting the overall phenotype. Here, utilizing detailed growth and trait data for 59 species of trees in a subtropical forest, we demonstrate that the individual-level functional trait values are strongly related to individual growth rates, and that the strength of these relationships critically depends on the context of that individual. We argue that our understanding of trait-performance relationships can be greatly improved with individual-level data so long as that data is put into the proper context. Abstract. Forging strong links between traits and performance is essential for understanding and predicting community assembly and dynamics. Functional trait analyses of trees that have correlated single-trait values with measures of performance such as growth and mortality have generally found weak relationships. A reason for these weak relationships is the failure to use individual-level trait data while simultaneously putting that data into the context of the abiotic setting, neighborhood composition, and the remaining axes constituting the overall phenotype. Here, utilizing detailed growth and trait data for 59 species of trees in a subtropical forest, we demonstrate that the individual-level functional trait values are strongly related to individual growth rates, and that the strength of these relationships critically depends on the context of that individual. We argue that our understanding of trait-performance relationships can be greatly improved with individuallevel data so long as that data is put into the proper context.

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.

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