SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

Increasing evidence suggests that high consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) is associated with an increase in non-communicable diseases, overweight and obesity. The present study systematically reviewed all observational studies that investigated the association between UPF consumption and health status. A comprehensive search of MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar was conducted, and reference lists of included articles were checked. Only cross-sectional and prospective cohort studies were included. At the end of the selection process, twenty-three studies (ten cross-sectional and thirteen prospective cohort studies) were included in the systematic review. As regards the cross-sectional studies, the highest UPF consumption was associated with a significant increase in the risk of overweight/obesity (+39 %), high waist circumference (+39 %), low HDL-cholesterol levels (+102 %) and the metabolic syndrome (+79 %), while no significant associations with hypertension, hyperglycaemia or hypertriacylglycerolaemia were observed. For prospective cohort studies evaluating a total population of 183 491 participants followed for a period ranging from 3·5 to 19 years, highest UPF consumption was found to be associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in five studies (risk ratio (RR) 1·25, 95 % CI 1·14, 1·37; P < 0·00001), increased risk of CVD in three studies (RR 1·29, 95 % CI 1·12, 1·48; P = 0·0003), cerebrovascular disease in two studies (RR 1·34, 95 % CI 1·07, 1·68; P = 0·01) and depression in two studies (RR 1·20, 95 % CI 1·03, 1·40; P = 0·02). In conclusion, increased UPF consumption was associated, although in a limited number of studies, with a worse cardiometabolic risk profile and a higher risk of CVD, cerebrovascular disease, depression and all-cause mortality.

Excessive consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs), as described by the NOVA classification system, represents a potential threat to human health. The nutritional composition of UPFs may explain their observed adverse effects. The present study aimed to provide a quantitative meta-analysis of nationally representative surveys on the consumption of UPFs and the dietary/nutrient composition of respondents’ diets. A systematic search for relevant studies published prior to July 2021 was conducted via electronic databases. The studies that provided the dietary/nutrient composition of foods categorized according to the NOVA classification system were selected. The association between UPFs and other dietary variables was modelled using ordinary least squares linear regression based on aggregated data extracted from the selected articles. Consumption of UPFs represented up to 80% of total caloric intake in the US and Canada, with confectionery and sugar-sweetened beverages being the most consumed items. When considered in relation to other food groups, an inverse linear relation between UPFs and less-processed foods was evident. Increased UPF intake correlated with an increase in free sugars, total fats, and saturated fats, as well as a decrease in fiber, protein, potassium, zinc, and magnesium, and vitamins A, C, D, E, B12, and niacin. In conclusion, the data indicate that increased UPF consumption negatively affects the nutritional quality of diets.

Background Consumption of ultra-processed food (UPF) is gaining growing attention in relation to disease/mortality risk, but less is known on the main nutritional factors or biological mechanisms potentially underlying such associations. Objectives We aimed to assess the association between UPF and mortality risk in a large sample of the Italian adult population and test which nutritional factors were on the pathway of this relation. Established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) were analyzed as potential biological mechanisms linking UPF to mortality. Methods Longitudinal analysis was conducted on 22,475 men and women (mean ± SD age: 55 ± 12 y) recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005–2010, Italy) and followed for 8.2 y. Food intake was assessed using a semiquantitative FFQ. UPF was defined using the NOVA classification according to degree of processing, and UPF intakes were categorized as quartiles of the ratio (%) of UPF (g/d) to total food consumed (g/d). Results Individuals reporting the highest intake of UPF (Q4, &gt;14.6% of total food), as opposed to the lowest (Q1, UPF &lt; 6.6%), experienced increased risks of CVD mortality (HR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.03), death from ischemic heart disease (IHD)/cerebrovascular disease (HR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.09), and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.46). High sugar content explained 36.3% of the relation of UPF with IHD/cerebrovascular mortality, whereas other nutritional factors (e.g., saturated fats) were unlikely to be on the pathway. Biomarkers of renal function accounted for 20.1% of the association of UPF with all-cause mortality, and 12.0% for that of UPF with CVD mortality. Conclusions A high proportion of UPF in the diet was associated with increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality, partly through its high dietary content of sugar. Some established biomarkers of CVD risk were likely to be on the pathway of such associations. These findings should serve as an incentive for limiting consumption of UPF, and encouraging natural or minimally processed foods, as several national nutritional policies recommend.

Background and aims There is poor knowledge on characteristics, comorbidities and laboratory measures associated with risk for adverse outcomes and in-hospital mortality in European Countries. We aimed at identifying baseline characteristics predisposing COVID-19 patients to in-hospital death. Methods and results Retrospective observational study on 3894 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalized from February 19th to May 23rd, 2020 and recruited in 30 clinical centres distributed throughout Italy. Machine learning (random forest)-based and Cox survival analysis. 61.7% of participants were men (median age 67 years), followed up for a median of 13 days. In-hospital mortality exhibited a geographical gradient, Northern Italian regions featuring more than twofold higher death rates as compared to Central/Southern areas (15.6% vs 6.4%, respectively). Machine learning analysis revealed that the most important features in death classification were impaired renal function, elevated C reactive protein and advanced age. These findings were confirmed by multivariable Cox survival analysis (hazard ratio (HR): 8.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.6–14.7 for age ≥85 vs 18–44 y); HR = 4.7; 2.9–7.7 for estimated glomerular filtration rate levels <15 vs ≥ 90 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ; HR = 2.3; 1.5–3.6 for C-reactive protein levels ≥10 vs ≤ 3 mg/L). No relation was found with obesity, tobacco use, cardiovascular disease and related-comorbidities. The associations between these variables and mortality were substantially homogenous across all sub-groups analyses. Conclusions Impaired renal function, elevated C-reactive protein and advanced age were major predictors of in-hospital death in a large cohort of unselected patients with COVID-19, admitted to 30 different clinical centres all over Italy.