In 2000, regulation on orphan medicinal products was adopted in the European Union with the aim of benefiting patients who suffer from serious, rare conditions for which there is currently no satisfactory treatment. Since then, more than 850 orphan drug designations have been granted by the European Commission based on a positive opinion from the Committee for Orphan Medicinal Products (COMP), and more than 60 orphan drugs have received marketing authorization in Europe. Here, stimulated by the tenth anniversary of the COMP, we reflect on the outcomes and experience gained in the past decade, and contemplate issues for the future, such as catalysing drug development for the large number of rare diseases that still lack effective treatments.

This article proposes the theory that counterfactual analysis may be used not only for building alternative scenarios of the past but also as a methodology for exploring the future. After defining three aspects of counterfactuality and counterfact (dormant facts, reinterpreted facts, and rumor) and illustrating each in historical contexts, the author outlines their prognostic potential with specific reference to recent events whose differing interpretations have profound implications for future policy and international relations planning. Based on these examples, the author concludes that using counterfactual analysis as a method for developing scenarios and forecasting represents a useful approach toward coping with uncertainty and identifying wild cards, black swans, and so on.

The paper presents a Genetic Algorithms technique, used to optimize project schedule created in Microsoft Project. The proposed model is called OPTPROJECT. The proposed application is simple and at the same time general enough for optimization of projects, where the high cost activities have to be performed last (at the end of the project). It can be used to manage both small and large projects.

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Counterfactuals are turning points in the evolving future and are often used to describe how the present or future might be different if, at a past turning point, the other road had been taken. The purpose of this article is to apply counterfactual analysis that has often been used in studies of history to future studies, in particular to uncover unexpected events, such as “Black Swans.” When we consider counterfacts as a tool for forecasting, we deal with unfinished business of the present. The fork in the road may be clear enough, but the choice of the path has not yet been made. But someday that choice may be made or will have to be made, and in speculating about it, we form images of the future and imagine scenarios based on chains of causality stretching forward from the fork. Thus, counterfactuals are our legacy to the future. In effect, we say to our children—or theirs: “Here are some issues left over from our time; sorry we couldn’t solve them. We hope you have better luck.”