No abstract

Although substantial research has been conducted to quantify the determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include such determinants in a formal migration model. Statistics Norway forecasts gross immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables include income level, unemployment, and population size in Norway and the sending countries, and the number of immigrants already living in Norway. Projections of exogenous variables are drawn from international and Norwegian sources. Three different alternatives are specified for the income variables, leading to three different forecasts for gross immigration until 2100.

No abstract

To study relations between childhood residential mobility and early adult outcomes, we use detailed longitudinal data on complete cohorts born in Norway between 1965 and 1980 (N ¼ 967 151) and information on all their relocations between municipalities. Results from models with and without sibling-fixed effects show that children with more residential moves are more likely to drop out of high school, to have a lower adult income and to experience early parenthood, although most of these associations are weaker in the sibling fixed effects models. We also find that age at moving matters: the outcomes are similar for children who move or remain in place prior to elementary school, whereas those who move in adolescence are worse off than those who do not.

BACKGROUND Most research on migrant fertility focuses on immigrants from high-fertility countries who have moved to countries with lower fertility. Little is known about the fertility of immigrant women from countries where fertility is lower than in the destination country. OBJECTIVE This study investigates fertility rates among women from low-fertility countries who have moved to a country where fertility is comparatively higher (Norway). METHODS Register data on immigrant women from Poland, Lithuania, and Germany are used to calculate total fertility rates by duration of stay and to explore differences between family migrants and women who migrate for other reasons, between women of different ages at arrival, and between those who emigrated again and those who remained in Norway. RESULTS Among immigrants from low-fertility countries, total fertility rates are elevated in the first years after migration. This is particularly true for women from Poland and Lithuania, who often arrive as family migrants and at peak fertility age (25 to 34 years). CONTRIBUTION The fertility among migrants from low-fertility settings is often highest right after migration, particularly if they arrive as family migrants. Women with nonfamily reasons for migration have a time lag between immigration and peak fertility. The results underscore the usefulness of taking reason for and age at migration into account when studying immigrant fertility.