Ukraine has one of the largest HIV epidemics in Europe, historically driven by people who inject drugs (PWID). The epidemic showed signs of stabilization in 2012, but the recent war in eastern Ukraine may be reigniting virus spread. We investigated the movement of HIV-infected people within Ukraine before and during the conflict. We analyzed HIV-1 subtype-A nucleotide sequences sampled during 2012-2015 from 427 patients of 24 regional AIDS centers and used phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct virus movement among different locations in Ukraine. We then tested for correlations between reported PWID behaviors and reconstructed patterns of virus spread. Our analyses suggest that Donetsk and Lugansk, two cities not controlled by the Ukrainian government in eastern Ukraine, were significant exporters of the virus to the rest of the country. Additional analyses showed that viral dissemination within the country changed after 2013. Spearman correlation analysis showed that incoming virus flow was correlated with the number of HIV-infected internally displaced people. Additionally, there was a correlation between more intensive virus movement and locations with a higher proportion of PWID practicing risky sexual behaviors. Our findings suggest that effective prevention responses should involve internally displaced people and people who frequently travel to war-affected regions. Scale-up of harm reduction services for PWID will be an important factor in preventing new local HIV outbreaks in Ukraine.

Assessment of the long-term population-level effects of HIV interventions is an ongoing public health challenge. Following the implementation of a Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) in Odessa, Ukraine, in 2013–2016, we obtained HIV pol gene sequences and used phylogenetics to identify HIV transmission clusters. We further applied the birth-death skyline model to the sequences from Odessa (n = 275) and Kyiv (n = 92) in order to estimate changes in the epidemic’s effective reproductive number (Re) and rate of becoming uninfectious (δ). We identified 12 transmission clusters in Odessa; phylogenetic clustering was correlated with younger age and higher average viral load at the time of sampling. Estimated Re were similar in Odessa and Kyiv before the initiation of TRIP; Re started to decline in 2013 and is now below Re = 1 in Odessa (Re = 0.4, 95%HPD 0.06–0.75), but not in Kyiv (Re = 2.3, 95%HPD 0.2–5.4). Similarly, estimates of δ increased in Odessa after the initiation of TRIP. Given that both cities shared the same HIV prevention programs in 2013–2019, apart from TRIP, the observed changes in transmission parameters are likely attributable to the TRIP intervention. We propose that molecular epidemiology analysis can be used as a post-intervention effectiveness assessment tool.

The HIV treatment cascade is an effective tool to track progress and gaps in the HIV response among key populations. People who inject drugs (PWID) remain the most affected key population in Ukraine with HIV prevalence of 22% in 2015. We performed secondary analysis of the 2017 Integrated Bio-Behavioral Surveillance (IBBS) survey data to construct the HIV treatment cascade for PWID and identify correlates of each indicator achievement. The biggest gap in the cascade was found in the first “90”, HIV status awareness: only 58% [95% CI: 56%-61%] of HIV-positive PWID reported being aware of their HIV-positive status. Almost 70% [67%-72%] of all HIV-infected PWID who were aware of their status reported that they currently received antiretroviral therapy (ART). Almost three quarters (74% [71%-77%]) of all HIV-infected PWID on ART were virally suppressed. Access to harm reduction services in the past 12 months and lifetime receipt of opioid agonist treatment (OAT) had the strongest association with HIV status awareness. Additionally, OAT patients who were aware of HIV-positive status had 1.7 [1.2–2.3] times the odds of receiving ART. Being on ART for the last 6 months or longer increased odds to be virally suppressed; in contrast, missed recent doses of ART significantly decreased the odds of suppression. The HIV treatment cascade analysis for PWID in Ukraine revealed substantial gaps at each step and identified factors contributing to achievement of the outcomes. More intensive harm reduction outreach along with targeted case finding could help to fill the HIV awareness gap among PWID in Ukraine. Scale up of OAT and community-level linkage to care and ART adherence interventions are viable strategies to improve ART coverage and viral suppression among PWID.

The use of real-time genomic epidemiology has enabled the tracking of the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), informing evidence-based public health decision making. Ukraine has experienced four waves of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) between spring 2020 and spring 2022. However, insufficient capacity for local genetic sequencing limited the potential application of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance for public health response in the country. Herein, we report local sequencing of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from patient samples collected in Kyiv in July-December 2021 using Oxford Nanopore technology. Together with other published Ukrainian SARS-CoV-2 genomes, our data suggest that the third wave of the epidemic in Ukraine (June-December 2021) was dominated by the Delta Variant of Concern (VOC). Our phylogeographic analysis revealed that in summer 2021 Delta VOC was introduced into Ukraine from multiple locations worldwide, with most introductions coming from Central and Eastern European countries. The wide geographic range of Delta introductions coincides with increased volume of travel to Ukraine particularly from locations outside of Europe in summer 2021. This study highlights the need to urgently integrate affordable and easily scaled pathogen sequencing technologies in locations with less developed genomic infrastructure, in order to support local public health decision making.